An ill-timed offensive malaise

The Royals dropped their season-high sixth consecutive game on Monday, falling 4-2 to the Cleveland Guardians. It was their fourth game in a row where they’ve scored exactly two runs. They have scored 16 runs during this streak.

The losing streak began the day after the Royals catapulted themselves into a tie for first place with those Guardians in the AL Central. They now stand in third place, 4.5 games behind Cleveland and a game back of the second-place Twins.

Yet, through all the struggles, I remain bullish on the Royals’ chances to be playing in October. Ohhhhh… Optimism!

Before we get to that, though…It’s not all sunshine at One Royal Way. I would be derelict in my newsletter duties if we didn’t discuss the reasons behind this current skid.

Let’s just get right into the muck. These are the individual offensive numbers from the Royals for the previous seven days.

I felt generous and included a victory (the 6-1 win in Cleveland). Doesn’t help the overall numbers much.

Bobby Witt Jr. isn’t getting on base enough, but he is still providing value through his power production. However, you’ll see besides the three home runs, he has just three runs driven in over the last seven days. That’s not his fault, his teammates aren’t getting on base for him.

Paul DeJong is really struggling at the moment, striking out in over half of his plate appearances. It would appear the boost he provided in August after he joined the club will not be continuing in September. At least for the moment.

Freddy Fermin remains an on base stalwart. Seriously, he’s a guy I feel tremendously comfortable with when he’s at the plate. You may not feel comfortable with Maikel Garcia at the plate, but he’s bringing the same kind of production he’s carried all season to this point. Plus, since he doesn’t get nabbed when swiping a bag (although he did get caught in the Houston series), I’d argue his presence on the bases carries even a little more potential value due to the fact he can grab that extra base to put his team in a better position.

MJ Melendez hasn’t hit for power over the last seven games, but is doing his best to get on base.

If you want to point to someone whose entire offensive game has cratered, that would be Salvador Perez. The strikeout rate is modestly up, but the balls he’s putting into play are automatic outs. You can argue the .158 BABIP over seven games is bad luck or whatever, but he’s hitting nearly 60 percent of the balls he’s putting into play on the ground. In fact, the groundball problem plagues most of this roster at the moment. Hard, good contact is down. Softer, ground ball contact is up.

It’s only been two games, but I have to say I’ve been impressed by what I’ve seen from Yuli Gurriel. I figured that at 40 years old and having spent the entire year in the International League, the bat speed wouldn’t necessarily be there. It hasn’t looked that way. He’s put together a string of solid plate appearances and has looked good playing defense at first.

Then he tweaked a hamstring hitting a double on Monday.

Sigh.

Gurriel had missed time with the Gwinnett Stripers with a hamstring issue just being traded to Kansas City. We probably shouldn’t be surprised it’s still a problem. After the game, acting manager Paul Hoover downplayed the injury, calling it a “super mild strain” and saying the team pulled him from the game as a precautionary measure. I dunno…Gurriel looked like it was really barking at him from the moment he left the box. Maybe he’s lucky and it was just a twinge or a spasm or something “mild,” but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he wasn’t in the lineup on Tuesday.

I wrote above about acting manager Paul Hoover. That’s because prior to Monday’s game the Royals announced manager Matt Quatraro would miss the game due to a “personal family matter.” I’ll be keeping a good thought for Quatraro and his family and wishing them the best.

Ok…now for a little of that promised optimism. Here are the current Wild Card standings:

A six-game losing streak in late August that spills over into September would, you would think, damage the chances of a contending team. That’s not necessarily the case as the Wild Card has become a war of attrition. Not only have the Royals stumbled in their last 10 games, the team closest to the Wild Card pack, the Boston Red Sox, have failed to capitalize, matching the Royals’ record. The Twins had a chance to build some distance between themselves and the Royals, but could only add a single game.

So it remains a 4.5 game cushion. Obviously, that can evaporate if the Royals remain mired in an offensive funk, but given some of the numbers I presented above, I see these most recent issues as a little regression in the extreme.

The playoff odds from FanGraphs have taken a dip, as you would imagine, but still…a three-in-four chance? I’ll take it.

This chart may give you a better feel for the current Wild Card dynamic. I included only the teams from the standings above.

There’s a huge gap between the top three and the next three. Not unexpected as there’s that 4.5 game gap and time is running out. That puts the Royals in the proverbial driver’s seat, which is exactly where they want to be.