Crash landing in Cleveland

For teams in contention, in September, all losses are bad losses. To lose to a team that is directly behind you in the standings…well, that’s an extraordinarily bad loss.

This is my way of saying that everything that happened in the Royals series opening loss to the Guardians by a score of 10-2 on Monday—getting no-hit by starter Slade Cecconi for seven innings, Royals starter Ryan Bergert finally throwing a stinker, getting shutout for 8.2 innings—did not matter. What ultimately is important is where the game ends up in the ledger. Is it in the column labeled “W”? Or is it in the “L” column?

Monday’s game against the Guardians was most definitely in that “L” column.

Which, as I wrote above, is unfortunate. Going into the game, the Royals were trailing in the Wild Card race by two games, but they were ahead of the Guardians by half a game. Now, their positions in the standings have been swapped. That alone isn’t a death knell on the season. There are still three games to go against Cleveland in this series. What it means is their margin for further error continues to whither. To restore the status quo—at least when it comes to teams around them in the Wild Card hunt—the Royals must win two of the remaining three.

I am not ready to declare the Royals finished, not when they have yet to be eliminated. But if they depart Cleveland chasing down three teams instead of two…that would be a truly terrible outcome. One that would be difficult to overcome.

I saw three things that I liked from Monday’s loss: Carter Jensen continues to put together solid plate appearances. Jac Caglianone is doing the same and did a nice job battling to drive in those two runs with two outs in the ninth. And Luke Maile didn’t allow a hit in his scoreless inning of relief.

Yes, the focus should be on the now and trying to get to the postseason, but the Jensen and Caglianone PAs encourage me for the future.

The Royals have lost two games in the standings since winning against the Twins on Saturday.

Every team ahead of them has, at a minimum, won their last two. The Royals have lost theirs. Math is sometimes easy, yet it’s always dreadful.

As of this writing, FanGraphs has the Royals Wild Card odds at just six percent. That’s the second-lowest they’ve been this season. Their odds were at 5.6 percent back in early August.

I believe the odds for New York and Seattle are low here, because the criteria on this graph is strictly for the Wild Card. Both of those teams are very much in the hunt for their respective divisional titles, currently at two games back. That’s why Boston, at three games back in the East, is the Wild Card favorite. The real story is the Rangers, Guardians and the Royals are long shots to get to the tournament. It’s not a done deal, but every day without a win makes the charge just a little more difficult.

Here’s how the rest of the series shapes up for the probable starters:

Tues—LHP Noah Cameron (7-6, 3.03) vs. LHP Joey Cantillo (4-3, 3.73) at 5:40 CDT
Wed—RHP Michael Wacha (9-11, 3.45) vs. LHP Logan Allen (7-11, 4.46) at 5:40 CDT
Thurs—RHP Stephen Kolek (5-5, 3.88) vs. RHP Gavin Williams (10-5, 3.17) at 6:15 CDT

Does this matter if Bobby Witt Jr. isn’t able to join the lineup? The last three days, scoreboard watching has been superseded by lineup card watching. The Royals desperately need their MVP in the lineup. His absence just makes the hurdle that much higher.

The Royals record stands at 73-71. That puts them on pace to win 82 games. That’s a good win total, but short of expectations and the 86 wins I figure a team needs to grab that final Wild Card spot. For the Royals to hit 86 wins, they will have to go 13-5 down the stretch. Doable, but difficult.

Every loss at this point makes things just slices the margin of error going forward.

Yet, as long as the Royals are in it, I’ll keep the optimism fires burning in this space. After 144 games, we know this team…their strengths, their weaknesses. I don’t think this team is good enough for the playoffs. If they somehow sneak in, they will almost certainly get rolled in the Wild Card round. I am taking comfort that the Royals are playing meaningful (if sometimes awful) September baseball. I am writing about the Wild Card and postseason odds and scoreboard watching. That’s something I haven’t been able to do all that often. I’ll take 82 wins and this team in the mix in September all day over 100 losses and the team out of it by the end of April.

Keep the faith.