Deadline dud

The Royals played this trade deadline the same way they’ve treated seemingly every trade deadline the past 10 years. That is to say, lacking the gumption for bold action, they played it straight. The trades they made were neither surprising nor inspired. They lacked inventiveness, creativity or panache. They simply…happened. If it wasn’t for the chorus of boos from the fanbase for lack of such, it was almost as if they occurred in a vacuum, unnoticed by those on the outside.

None of this is surprising because these are the Kansas City Royals, where next year is forever going to be their year, damnit. Therefore they never tear down or build up, instead choosing to plod forward, never failing to deviate from the only path they know. They are predictable in their mediocrity.

What makes this so frustrating is that the Royals actually have assembled a roster with some talent. They have a generational superstar. They have a decent nucleus of young bats. They built a successful pitching lab and the depth to serve it. Yet they somehow always seem to shoot themselves in the foot. And when they’ve finished blowing off a few toes, they wonder how it all happened and then resume course on the exact same path. Weird how things never seem to change around this team.

Can we be disappointed if we’re not surprised? It seems as if we’re angry at the Royals for their lack of proactivity in attacking a trade deadline, shouldn’t that be on us? We have years of evidence at this point. The Royals are who they are, stuck in a quagmire of their own mediocrity. The lack valuable players to deal and those who have value are too often held past their "sell by" date, rendering the eventual return uninspiring and unhelpful.

Sure, we can point a finger at the Royals for failing in their boldness, but that just seems to be the industry vibe at this point. The trade deadline itself has become kind of...boring. It’s a rote exercise where contending teams ship prospects to the game’s rebuilding class. In exchange, those teams send veterans—usually pitchers it seems—on expiring deals. It’s an awkward dance where players who have never appeared in the majors are overvalued. And with an expanded postseason, it seems as if there are too many buyers and not enough sellers. That would indicate a seller's market, but it rarely plays out that way. Instead, it's a battle of nerves.

As for the moves the Royals did make at this deadline, I tend to think they did just fine. In shades of the Danny Duffy deal all those years ago, the Los Angeles Dodgers agreed to take a lefty in Kris Bubic who has taken residence upon the 60-day IL. Unlike the Duffy deal where the return was contingent upon him getting back on the mound, the Dodgers seem convinced that Bubic can help before he walks as a free agent this winter.

In exchange for Bubic, the Royals received right-handed reliever Carlos Durán. Durán signed with the Dodgers as a minor league free agent last winter and was added to their 40-man roster in July. He’s posted a 3.38 ERA in Triple-A with a 31 percent strikeout rate. It helps that he possesses a wipeout slider and a two-seam fastball that rides in the upper 90s. The Royals bullpen has been devoid of swing and miss and heat these last couple of years, so it would seem that these were attributes the Royals were targeting. Not as great is Durán’s 14 percent walk rate. It would seem he has only a general acquaintance with the strike zone. which is why he's only had one brief major league encounter. As of this writing, the Royals haven't decided if Durán will join the team in Kansas City or report to Triple-A Omaha.

Durán started out in the Dodger organization as an international signing from the Dominican Republic. Baseball America slotted him as LA’s 28th-best prospect ahead of the 2023 season. From that scouting report:

Duran is physically huge at 6-foot-7, 230 pounds and has power stuff befitting his frame. His two-seam fastball sits 93-96 mph and touches 98 with huge run to stay off barrels and get weak contact from righthanded hitters…Duran's primary weapon is a plus-plus, mid-80s slider that may be the best individual pitch in the Dodgers system. Duran hides the ball well behind his big body and the pitch turns hard with power sweep and dive to get consistent swings and misses off the plate… He is a power pitcher with fringy control and is best in short bursts.

The recent stat line bears out the last sentence of that scouting report.

I’m just impressed the Royals were able to get anything back for Bubic, let alone a guy who can probably go straight into the major league bullpen. That, in itself, is a win. As noted in Monday’s newsletter, I didn’t think there was a chance any contending team would go for a guy who has already had a couple of setbacks in his recovery from elbow soreness and then shoulder soreness and hasn’t pitched since May. The Dodgers play by different rules.

As for Bubic, a member of that college pitching heavy draft class of 2018, injuries really derailed what, at one time, seemed to be a very promising Royals career. He had Tommy John surgery early in 2023 that caused him to miss almost 14 months. A rotator cuff strain cut his 2025 season short around this time last year. And this year, he’s made only nine starts as he had an elbow strain and then injured his shoulder while on a rehab assignment. All told, he’s thrown just 213 major league innings since 2023.

Focus on the 2024 season, when Bubic was a key bullpen lefty in the run to the postseason for the Royals. His pitches played up in those short outings and his strikeout to walk ratio exploded. I would imagine that the Dodgers are looking at Bubic for their bullpen. He could be an important arm for them down the stretch and in October. With the requisite asterisk that says, “If healthy.”

The Dodgers will assume the roughly $1.8 million remaining on his salary, so the cost-cutting continues. According to MLB Trade Rumors, the actual cost to the Dodgers since they’re over the luxury tax threshold is closer to $3.8 million. I hear they can afford it.

In the other move on Deadline Day, the Royals acquired right-handed reliever Nolan Hoffman from the Phillies for 19-year-old A-ball pitcher Manuel Colon. Hoffman had been designated for assignment by Philadelphia earlier in the day.

Hoffman throws six pitches with his four-seam clocking in around 93 mph and will top out around 95 mph. He also throws a sinker and a cut fastball. He compliments the hard stuff with a sweeper, curve and changeup. He’s had a couple cups of coffee, but has spent the majority of his professional career in Triple-A. Pitching at that level for the Orioles, Rangers and Phillies organizations, he’s amassed a 13 percent walk rate with a 27 percent strikeout rate.  He’s a fairly extreme ground ball pitcher, with a ground ball rate over 50 percent this year.

Picollo compared Hoffman to Schreiber as both feature a low, sling-shot release point.

Hoffman will report to Omaha for the Storm Chasers but given the way the Royals have been burning through pitchers this year, it wouldn't be surprising if he got some major league innings before the end of the season.

The Royals have clearly taken a shotgun approach to assembling their bullpen, throwing quantity at the problem instead of quality, hoping that someone shows some moxie and can stick. Worth trying anything at this point.

As for the deals the Royals didn't make, Picollo said that his team received inquiries on about "75 percent" of their roster. He also said that the reported "heavy interest" in veteran starters Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo was "overstated."

"There were teams that were interested in Wacha and Lugo and what we just explained to clubs is with the core players that we had coming back, that we need starting pitching, so we hold those guys in high esteem and we value them quite a bit. If you great interest in them, please come to us and talk to us about it. Some clubs chose to have more discussions, some clubs chose not to."

It sounds as if the Royals valuation of their starters prevented deals from happening. Although Picollo explained that, given how the current trade deadline operates, they weren't going to get what they were looking for.

"I think it's important to understand that if you trade a Wacha or a Lugo you're getting prospects back, which is not a bad thing, but also depends on where your team's timeline is...We have a lot of work to rebuild a pitching staff so getting prospects back that are three years away, four years away, wasn't that exciting to us."

While I may disagree with Picollo about where his team's timeline is in regards to contention, I understand the desire to get major league or near major league ready talent in exchange for either one of his starters. Especially for Wacha who is under team control for next year and with a team option for the year after that, all at a very team-friendly cost. The Royals certainly need to restock their farm system, but given the returns for the starting pitchers we saw across the deadline, the Royals were never getting a "sure thing" for either arm.

Maybe a better time to shop the pair would be this offseason, when teams are a bit more agreeable at moving major league talent. If there is an offseason, that is.

At risk of continuing my reputation as a Picollo apologist, I understand the reasoning. Their rotation is in shambles, thrown into a meat grinder. Lugo and Wacha aren't front-line guys, but they're dependable starters. The Royals are going to need to compliment those two this offseason. Maybe the tables will be turned and the Royals can deal prospects for a quality arms. You know, kind of like the James Shields/Wade Davis deal that got us all incensed a decade and a half ago. That's where the Royals are. They need to be bold in order to be competitive. And they need to be competitive, otherwise they are going to be completely wasting the prime of Bobby Witt Jr.

What I don't understand is the inability to move a guy like Schreiber. It feels like I'm obligated to mention that, but maybe he was in the 25 percent that wasn't inquired on. Or maybe the Royals were underwhelmed by the potential return of an A-ball reliever who will likely be out of the game in a couple of years. Maybe there just isn't a market for relievers who throw in the low 90s and strikeout only around six per nine innings. Or maybe Picollo fell into the old Dayton Moore trap of "we're still trying to win ballgames" and kept him around because they didn't want to remove a reliever from their bullpen.

That kind of sums up this trade deadline. The Royals have a few players teams should want, but there are better options out there. Welcome to Royals baseball.

The eyes are now fully focused on 2027. Wish us luck.