Is Luinder Avila a fit for the rotation?

Congratulations. You made it. I don’t give a damn about the temperature outside, winter is over. (Actually, I kind of do care about that. I was outside at 6 a.m.. It's cold.) Baseball will be played this afternoon. It won’t count and the starters will only appear for a few innings, if that, but it does not matter. Teams will be in dugouts. Lines will be painted, outlining a batter’s box. Pitchers will throw. I will listen to the game unfold over the internet. It’s baseball.

The Royals Cactus League slate gets underway on Friday as they “visit” their complex-mates the Texas Rangers. We learned on Wednesday that Steven Kolek will get the ball to open.

I noted yesterday about how the spring media scrums with the manager are generally about getting info on random guys. Oftentimes, the comments are just sort of disposable. This player is doing well...This player is healthy...This player is competing...Yadda, yadda, yadda. There are other times, though, where your interest is piqued. Manager Matt Quatraro grabbed my attention on Thursday with his comments on Luinder Avila:

“I see him as a front of the rotation starter down the road. I think he’s that kind of guy. He’s got plus pitches to righties and lefties. He’s not scared. He throws a ton of strikes. The sky’s the limit for a guy like that.”

After three seasons in Kansas City, we know Quatraro pretty well. He doesn’t get too high. He doesn’t get too low. He has his player’s backs and generally speaks positively of them. I’m not sure I’ve heard him gush (and yes, for Q this counts as him gushing) over a player quite like he did with Avila. A front of the rotation starter? We already knew the Royals were high on the righty. He positioned himself for a call-up earlier than his actual arrival in Kansas City, but was waylaid by right shoulder impingement that cost him a couple of months.

When he did finally make it to Kansas City, he was impressive, posting a 1.29 ERA against a 2.14 FIP in 14 innings where he struck out 16 batters and walked six. While he’s primarily been a starter as he’s worked his way up the organizational ladder, in Kansas City Avila worked exclusively out of the bullpen. The prospect hounds like those at Baseball America think that is where his future home is. Quatraro very obviously has a different take.

Avila comes armed with a four-seamer, a sinker, a curve and an ocassional changeup. It’s the curve that’s his best pitch. Baseball America says it’s the best curve among Royals minor leaguers. Seeing it in action is a sight to behold.

Avila uses his curve more than any other offering, throwing it 44 percent of the time. The GIF above came against a left-handed hitter, but it’s a pitch he will unleash no matter which side of the plate the batter sets up. The four-seamer is the fastball he will show lefties. The sinker is the primary fastball of choice versus right-handed hitters.

I’m engaging in a bit of small sample theatre given his limited major league action, but I was taken by his heat map at Baseball Savant on his four-seam and his curve.

On the curve, there’s the red dot on the glove-side edge and then one even lower, which is the location of the pitch illustrated above. The four-seamer—remember it’s thrown primarily to left-handed hitters—is not only up, but in. That’s a nasty pitch coming in at 96 mph, topping out at 98 mph. That goes to just about everything I've heard of Avila's mental makeup. The dude simply doesn't not know fear. He is in attack mode and he will come right inside your kitchen. If you’re hitting against Avila from the left side, look heat high or curve low. Guess wrong and you’re toast. Hell, even a correct pick will yield less than optimal results.

Ten at bats ended on the Avila four-seamer last year. All 10 were outs. Avila finished off 21 at bats with his curve. There were just two hits—both singles—with 13 strikeouts.

Avila turned 24 last August. As Quatraro said about the right-hander, he’s not scared when he’s on the big league mound. I remember watching his debut where he made quick work of three Washington Nationals on 10 pitches in the eighth inning of a game where the Royals were trailing by a run, thinking he carried himself like a veteran.

When thinking about Avila, I had always just sort of assumed this big league future would be in the bullpen. Even though his seldom-used changeup has what scouts describe as plus potential, his use of two primary pitches—the curve and four-seam combo against lefties and the curve and sinker mix versus right-handed hitters—and his overall attack demeanor, make him an ideal bullpen candidate. It's not difficult seeing the guy force his way into a leverage conversation where he is considered a back of the bullpen reliever.

However, Quatraro's assessment has me reconsidering. Having Avila in the rotation was always a possibility, but "front of the rotation?" Whoa. In order to make that happen, he's going to have to refine and rely on that changeup a little more. That would give him another weapon against left-handed hitters. If Avila starts attacking hitters with three pitches—curve, four-seam, sinker against righties and curve, four-seam, change versus lefties—that changes the calculus in determining his future role on the big league club. If I were to tell you something to watch this spring, it would be Avila's pitch mix. Let's see if he throws the change with more frequency. Could he even add another pitch to the mix? He's talented enough to pull something new out of the bag.

Every time I sit down to write about the Royals, I marvel at the pitching depth they've assembled. For the first time, I actually do wonder how the club will find the innings for everyone. What a great problem to have.

And if Avila can take a step forward and stake a claim as a viable option for the rotation...the Royals pitching staff just got a little deeper. And if Avila is a fit for the rotation, it may be a couple of seasons before he realizes that upside Quatraro sees for him as a number one or two starter. But I'm excited to watch the journey. It could be well worth the time.