Nine bold predictions for the 2026 Kansas City Royals

Yes, it's finally that time of the year.

Prediction time!

This season, I'm going to divide this exercise into two parts. Today, I'll start with the bold predictions. See what I did there? These are the ones that, if they actually hit, I'll remind you about over and over again. I don't think any of them are way out there, but let's just say there's plenty of optimism ahead. It's spring.

Tomorrow, I'll be a little less bold and give you my win total for the team along with division standings and maybe a postseason prediction. Of course, I'll bring you the usual news and whatnot as the team moves ever so close to Opening Day and real baseball.

Off we go!

Jac Caglianone will get at least one MVP vote

I cannot help myself. I’m a big believer in Jac Caglianone. I think he’s going to be the elite power hitter the Royals have never, ever had. It’s impossible to look beyond the force that he propels the baseball when he squares it up. Of course, he has to have the proper swing path and timing and all those things required to be a decent major league hitter. Last year was a rough introduction. We're going to learn something about Cags this year. I think we will look back on his rough introduction to the majors in 2025 as some early growing pains.

Plus, I look forward to using this GIF with frequency this summer:

The guy possesses elite bat speed and, in exhibition play this spring, had six walks against six strikeouts. Yeah, I'm going to cite spring training numbers here, but that tells me the guy is staying disciplined at the plate. That's important, even in spring. I truly think he's going to be just fine.

Mind you, this bold prediction doesn’t mean he’s winning the MVP. Nor do I think he’s going to be one of the 10 best players in the league. Last year, 20 players in the AL received at least one vote. Yandy Díaz in Tampa and Jacob Wilson in Sacramento each got a lone 10th place vote. I think that in 2026 Caglianone gets, at a minimum, one 10th place vote.

Carter Jensen will win the AL Rookie of the Year award

I’ve seen this pop up from a few national writer types, so maybe this isn’t so bold. But I would be remiss in my duty as a writer on the Royals beat to not make this prediction.

I did not think the Royals would bring him up last year while they were still on the fringes of a playoff spot. In retrospect (and while it was happening) I totally get it. Jensen hits the crap out of the ball. It’s loud, malicious contact.

Russell Carleton at Baseball Prospectus found barrel rates normalize after around 50 batted balls. Jensen had 48 last year in 69 plate appearances where he hit .300/.391/.550, good for a whopping 159 wRC+. As Mike Petriello writes in his seven breakout hitters to watch, that’s “close enough.”

Last year, five players with at least 40 batted ball events had a barrel rate greater than 20 percent.

Oh, nothing to see here. Just two perennial MVPs, the most prolific destroyer of baseballs in the Statcast Era and the NL leader in home runs in 2025.

How about the leaders in EV50? EV50 is the average of the hardest 50 percent of batted balls for the hitter.

Mercy.

The point isn’t to compare Jensen to these prolific power hitters. While 50 batted balls may be enough for barrel rates to normalize, I’m not that nuts to think this translates to something crazy like Jensen leading the league in home runs. The title of the article is bold predictions, not insane ones.

No, showing these tables is simply to underscore how Jensen was not at all overwhelmed by his late-season promotion to the majors. He more than held his own. He served notice. He served loud notice.

That notice is, Jensen is the favorite to capture AL Rookie of the Year honors. If it happens, he would be the fifth winner in franchise history and the first since Angel Berroa in 2003.

Cole Ragans will in the top five in the majors in strikeouts

This one doesn’t seem so bold because we know Ragans is more than capable of racking up the whiffs. The only reason I don't have him leading the league is because I believe the Royals will manage his workload this summer. Even if he stays healthy for the entire year, it seems like he will be on target for 26 to 28 starts. Because if he stays healthy for the entire year, the Royals will be in the hunt for a postseason spot.

Throwing just 61.2 innings last year, Ragans struck out 38 percent of all batters faced. Among starters who pitched at least 60 innings, that was the highest by almost five percentage points. That’s bonkers. When he was healthy, he absolutely carved up opposing batters.

Oh, here’s a bonus bold prediction for you: If the Royals don't feel the need to manage Ragans' starts and he makes over 30 of them and he finishes as the league leader in strikeouts, he’s the Cy Young Award winner in the AL.

Michael Massey will get more starts at second base than Jonathan India

This is like two bold predictions in one! For starters, I’m banking on Massey being healthy enough to get the lion’s share of innings at the keystone. That right there could be the end of this prediction. Also, and I hate to go negative with a prediction in this space, but I’m just not sold on India as a regular. Not on this team with this kind of potential.

This spring, 799 players put 10 or more batted balls into play. India’s average exit velocity on his batted balls was 84.9 mph. That ranked him 704 out of the 799. His Hard Hit Rate was around 37 percent. Both his average exit velocity and Hard Hit % were close to where he finished in 2025. While India has good command of the zone and doesn’t get himself out at the plate, the player we saw last year was who he seems to be moving forward.

Then, roll into the equation that Massey is a better defender at second who has an almost telepathic double play spidey-sense with Bobby Witt Jr., and I think the Royals are going to figure out rather quickly that a healthy Massey is the main man at the keystone.

Carlos Estévez will not be closing games for the Royals in May

Again, I hate to go negative on these bold predictions, but I cannot get beyond the fact that Estévez is nowhere near where he needs to be with the start of the season just days away. We know that relievers are a notoriously fickle bunch when it comes to consistent performance from year to year. The good teams are prepared for a falloff and move quickly.

Estévez made another appearance in Texas on Monday night. Again, his four-seamer was clocked around 89 mph, over six mph below where he sat last year. He walked a batter and hit another. But he struck out the side, all swinging. What an utterly confusing spring he's had. I just don't trust the lack of velocity and control issues through the entire season.

Luinder Avila will lead the team in saves

This may be the boldest prediction yet! I know the Royals are high on Avila as a future starter, but he has the potential to be something extremely special in the bullpen. He could be first in line for a promotion when the Royals need a fresh arm and he could just slot into the closer role relatively quickly.

Yes, this is a vote of no confidence in Estévez and even on Lucas Erceg who presumably would be next man up when Estévez is moved from the closer role. I'm a bit worried about Erceg for sort of the same reasons I have doubts on Estévez—his velocity is down just a touch but that coincided with a massive tumble in strikeout rate last year. Erceg's spring looks much like his 2025 season.

Avila showed what he could do in 14 innings last year where he struck out 16 and walked six. That taste, coupled with his exposure to high intensity baseball at the World Baseball Classic, has him ready for a prime time role out of the bullpen. Plus, the Royals have the luxury of depth in the rotation which allows them to slot Avila literally anywhere.

The Royals will score an average of 4.75 runs per game, making them a top 10 offense in the majors

This bold prediction feels the most dangerous. Last year, the Royals offense scored barely over four runs per game. They were well below average, ranking 25 out of 30 major league teams. If they manage to tack three-quarters of a run per game onto that average, they would catapult into the top 10 offenses in the game.

It's a big ask and a potentially crazy expectation. But I'm banking on the following:
1) Maikel Garcia builds on his breakout 2025 season.
2) Bobby Witt Jr. is Bobby Witt Jr.
3) Vinnie Pasquantino takes advantage of the fences moving in at The K.
4) A breakout season from Jac Caglianone.
5) A full season from Carter Jensen.
6) The ageless Salvador Perez dodges regression for another year.
7) A solid contribution from Lane Thomas.

I also expect between Michael Massey, Isaac Collins and even Jonathan India that the overall on base percentage of this team will bump enough to give the heavy hitters in the lineup more opportunity to cash in runners.

It's always risky to bank on breakout seasons from unproven players, but this Royals lineup feels much more formidable than the ones we've seen in recent summers.

OK...I'm clearly on a roll. How about a bold prediction for the minor leagues?

Kendry Chourio will be a top 10 prospect by the end of the season

Admittedly, I am not much of a prospect hound. I follow the guys in the minors close enough, but the majority of my time is taken up with the big league club. That said, I cannot remember a pitching prospect who makes me feel the way Churio does. Maybe Zack Greinke? But the overwhelming power (he was sitting 96 mph this spring) from this kid from Venezuela, along with pinpoint control (he struck out 63 batters and walked five last year)...Give me a bucket full of Kool-Aid because I want to drink it all.

And finally...

Bobby Witt Jr. will win the American League MVP

I mean...Obviously.