Calling my shot

The 2026 baseball season starts...tonight? I guess Major League Baseball is fully embracing that NFL model where the year opens with a single game ahead of the usual full slate of action. On one hand, I'm for meaningful baseball at any time. On the other, it's on Netflix and...I'll have more to write on that below.

This is the time, after making several bold predictions on Tuesday, to peer into the Official Crystal Ball of Into the Fountains (it's actually a coffee mug) to suss out exactly how the 2026 season is going to unfold. Below you will find the winners and the losers and everything in between.

Before I get into my prediction for how the AL Central will shake out in 2026, I thought it would be a good touchstone to see how a couple of old pro projection systems see the division unfolding.

Friends, you’re not going to believe PECOTA.

One of the things I like about the Baseball Prospectus preseason projections is this chart that shows a range of outcomes through all of the different simulations they run. It's a good snapshot when it comes to how they view the divisions from a high-level view.

I don’t think it’s any kind of a surprise that even curmudgeonly old PECOTA thinks the AL Central will come down to a battle between the Royals and the Tigers. The Royals have a rock-solid foundation with some decent upside. The Tigers have strong foundation as well, but they also have some deeper pockets and weren’t shy on the free agent market.

Squint at the chart above, though, and you see there is probably just a bit more upside for the Royals. There’s a path there for 90 wins. As I've watched this team go about business this winter, I've been generally underwhelmed with the moves they've made. The outfield, as stated before (and before, and before) could've used a little more work. But the core group assembled is good. Very good. An improving offense with a solid pitching staff frontlined by a true ace is often the formula for a team set to make a charge. PECOTA sees what I think we're all seeing: Big upside

Let’s check in with FanGraphs.

Ok…their models are less bullish on the Royals chances, seeing them as a .500 team. (Quick aside: What are these computers seeing in the Minnesota Twins that I’m missing? More on that in a moment.)

FanGraphs sees the Royals offense improving. That's important. They scored an average of 4 runs per game last year. They project 4.5 R/G in 2026. Where the Royals come up short in these projections is that FanGraphs thinks that the gains on the hitting side will be surrendered by the pitchers. I'm not sure I buy that. Part of that is the amount of trust I place in Brian Sweeney and his Pitching Lab. The other part is that the rotation is a mix of younger, stud pitchers (Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic) and older, wily veterans (Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha). Assuming good health (which is a dangerous thing to do on March 25), I think this staff is going to be mostly good. Good enough to get them places.

Here’s the breakdown on the chances they give each team to win the division.

That is probably impossible to read on your phone. They give Detroit a 59.8 percent chance of capturing the AL Central. The Royals check in with a 21.3 percent chance. The Twins somehow stand at 12.2 percent. The White Sox are at a scant 0.6 percent chance to win the division. I tried to include their plot on the graph, but for some reason, when I click it on, it messes everything up. Typical White Sox.

I'm not sure how the Twins rate so highly in both projections. They seem to lack the interest in winning that's required to...win. I think this is a bottom-feeding team that will be battling the White Sox for the basement.

Without further ado, here is my predicted standings for the AL Central:

I really, really wanted to put the Royals at the top. Especially after writing yesterday's bold predictions where I chugged a gallon of Royal blue Kool-Aid. I just couldn't get past the Tigers front line starters and what I think is going to be a solid lineup pretty much from top to bottom. There is a scenario where the Royals stand toe-to-toe with the Tigers and an epic battle brews all season. I just think the Tigers one-two rotation punch with their lefties edges out the Royals one-two punch with theirs.

As for the rest of the AL Central, remember how in 2024 they got two Wild Card teams and the Twins finished above .500 thanks to a Chicago team that lost 121 games? Well, the White Sox aren't that bad, but the Twins have decided to battle them for basement supremacy. That, along with a weakened Cleveland club again creates something of a divisional imbalance. The Royals and the Tigers are the beneficiaries in that I strongly believe that whichever team finishes second will gain one of the three Wild Card spots available.

Here's how I see the divisions coming together in the American League:

The Royals, Red Sox and Orioles are your Wild Card teams. I wanted to put the Red Sox as the winners in the East, but went with last year's AL Pennant winners solely because I want a Wild Card to advance to a League Championship Series.

ALCS - Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox
AL Pennant - Seattle Mariners

The Mariners finally get to a World Series. March congratulations to them!

Now for the National League:

The Reds, Brewers and Phillies are the Wild Card Teams. The Dodgers are the Dodgers. Except they don't get out of the Divisional Series round!

NLCS - Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets
NL Pennant - New York Mets

If you're dead-set against picking the Dodgers for anything, you become enveloped in a haze where you are busy flipping coins in trying to decide who has an edge.

World Series Champion - Seattle Mariners

All this is going to look silly when the Dodgers go for their third consecutive World Series title. But I really, really did not want to pick them. Besides, I'm not ready for all the "Dodgers are ruining baseball and we need a lockout and a salary cap" discourse that will emerge from something like that. Things are going to be grim enough as the season wraps in late October or early November.

How about some picks for personal hardware?

AL MVP - Bobby Witt Jr.
AL Cy Young - Garrett Crochet
AL Rookie of the Year - Carter Jensen

NL MVP - Shohei Ohtani
NL Cy Young - Yoshinobu Yamamoto
NL Rookie of the Year - JJ Wetherholt

You know from yesterday's bold predictions where I stand on the AL MVP and Rookie of the Year awards. I'd like to pick someone other than Ohtani for the NL MVP, but really?

Please feel free to leave your predictions in the comments. It's a blank canvas for you. If you only want to leave a guess for MVP, then just leave a guess for MVP. If you want to go wild and list all the divisions, there's nothing to stop you. Have fun. Then, bookmark this post and we can look back in September and all have a laugh at how wrong we were. Happy almost Opening Day!

Opening Day rosters will be set sometime today. Even though the Royals don't play on Thursday, there will be plenty to discuss tomorrow as we will know the 26 who take the field for the first game of the season.

As noted above, the first pitch of the 2026 season will be thrown on Wednesday night in San Francisco as the Giants host the Yankees. The game will be available on…Netflix? Sure. I’m used to flipping through every streaming universe under the sun to watch sports. So why not Netflix?

Here’s where it gets really fun! (Not complimentary!) Matt Vasergersian is the play-by-play guy and will be joined in the booth by CC Sabathia and Hunter Pence. Ok…Personally, Vasergersian is among my least-favorite PBP’ers, but we’re all used to national games saddled with sub-par announcing crews. I’m still trying to get over the Bob Costas fiasco in the 2024 ALDS. Whatever.

Elle Duncan is the studio hostess and she will be joined by Albert Pujols and Anthony Rizzo and Barry Bonds. Barry Bonds??? Lauren Shehadi will work the dugouts. Then, there are the “special guests” Jameis Winston and Bert Kreischer. I had to Google Bert Kreischer. I still don't know who he is. But the fun doesn't stop there! Also appearing are Jey and Jimmy Uso who are apparently WWE “Superstars.”

My thoughts immediately drifted here:

Yes, friends…the Opening Night clown event is still possible.

I realize I'm bringing serious "get off my lawn" energy, but could we just focus on the game? It one of 162 and to dress it up like some sort of freakshow doesn't really do service to the game as a whole.

How about we just skip this one and fast forward to the real Opening Day? And by that I mean Friday when the Royals actually play.