Roster Projection 1.0

A new year (I believe you can still wish someone “Happy New Year” for another day or two) is a perfect time to roll out a roster projection for the upcoming season.

For the Royals, there’s not so much intrigue among the bats with most of the positions as set as they’ll ever be. Most of the movement there will be among the fringes. As for the rotation, that feels locked, even though the Royals have more depth in that role than ever. The back of the bullpen feels set, with the middle relief guys as fungible as ever.

Yes, it’s roster projection season!

Catcher

Carter Jensen
Salvador Perez

As usual, the easiest of the groups. The only question is how will this duo split the playing time behind the dish?

Last season, Perez started 33 percent of his games in June at either first base or designated hitter. In July that percentage jumped to more than 50 percent. Of course in addition to the days off there are the usual nicks and cuts and bruises suffered behind the plate that would demand that Salvy take a day or two off from donning the tools of ignorance. Still, I figure the actual time Perez squats behind the plate is close to that 50 percent rate in 2026. Jensen showed himself to be a capable player…much better than I thought he would. A solid spring from him would probably open the door to more playing time behind the dish in the early going.

Infield

Maikel Garcia
Jonathan India
Michael Massey
Vinnie Pasquantino
Bobby Witt Jr.

Three of the four infield spots are set in moissanite. (Yes, I looked that up.) You know the fourth spot that is less certain: second base.

It certainly appears the Royals are prepared to give every opportunity to Jonathan India to prove that last year was a fluke. The conventional line of thought was that 2025 was a disaster brought on by myriad issues…a new team, a new position (or two!) and some early season injuries. I’m skeptical, but once they looked at the trade and free agent markets for second basemen, it’s a gamble the Royals decided to take.

I included Massey here because if India falters, he’s the beneficiary on the depth chart. I still don’t understand a roster that has both players. It is worth noting that Massey has options remaining and can be moved to Omaha should he need to find regular at bats. It sounds weird, but that’s kind of a best case scenario to keep him sharp because I think he’s going to be pressed into regular action by late May. Although…Assume Witt stays awesome, Garcia builds on his breakout, and Pasquantino is consistent…If India is comfortable, healthy and productive, this could be a decent infield.

Outfield

Jac Caglianone
Isaac Collins
Kyle Isbel
Nick Loftin
Lane Thomas
Tyler Tolbert

The additions of Collins and Thomas were good moves that improved the outfield options, but this is still an underwhelming group from which Matt Quatraro will have to find three dudes to patrol the grass. So much hinges on a breakout season from Caglianone. That, as we saw last year, carries enormous risk.

Among position players, Drew Waters is the one guy on the 40-man roster who does not have options remaining. I can’t see the Royals adding Waters to the big league club at the expense of someone like Tolbert who has plus speed as a carrying tool. Waters looks like someone who will be a waiver casualty late in camp.

Starting rotation

Cole Ragans
Seth Lugo
Kris Bubic
Michael Wacha
Noah Cameron

This is how I see the order of the five man rotation to open the season. Since Opening Day in Atlanta was pushed back a day (which is just kind of a bummer), the Royals will need that fifth starter from the jump. They could just go with four starters one time through the rotation, but they have only one off day in the season’s first 16 days.

Ragans is the ace. The Dude. He gets Opening Day. Despite his struggles and subsequent shutdown at the end of last year, Lugo follows. Bubic slots in the middle while Wacha and Cameron bring up the last two spots. That gives the Royals a nice left-right-left-right-left order.

Bullpen

Steven Cruz
Lucas Erceg
Carlos Estévez
Bailey Falter
Daniel Lynch IV
Nick Mears
John Schreiber
Matt Strahm

This is an interesting group. You probably have some questions. Let’s start at the back. We know Estévez is the closer with Erceg and Strahm as the lefty/righty setup combo. Schreiber is also in that mix. I suspect Mears with an elite chase rate will quickly position himself in Quatraro’s Circle of Bullpen Trust.

Cruz is sort of a bullpen “guy” to me. He has options, so he’s someone who can be rotated in an out as necessary. If Cruz doesn’t get the spot, Steven Zobac could get the call. Lynch is the lefty version of Cruz in that he, too, has options. He will probably stick, though, as just a lefty bullpen guy because lefty bullpen guys are a little more useful.

Someone who does not have options is Falter. That’s why he’s on this roster projection. Even though he had a rough introduction to Kansas City, he’s a guy with a history with pitching coach Brian Sweeney and now, a tendered contract, as the Royals decided they would offer him one back at the deadline. Unless he absolutely bombs out in Surprise, Falter has a spot on this team to show what he can do as a long reliever.

As you’ve probably noticed, there are a couple of interesting omissions from this pitching staff. Namely Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. I think both guys could be good enough to secure a back of the rotation spot, but if everyone is healthy coming out of spring training (and that’s the assumption—however misguided—I’m working from here), the former Padres duo gets caught up in a numbers game. The silver lining, as I see it, is they can get optioned to Omaha and stay stretched out and ready to jump to back to the majors when the need arises. And as we saw last summer, the need will most certainly arise.

The guy I’m perhaps most curious about who did not make the cut here is Luinder Avila. He made his major league debut last summer and was impressive in 13 innings coming out of the bullpen. A starter for most of his minor league career, he was supposed to make his debut earlier in the summer, but went down with a shoulder impingement just ahead of getting the call. Bad timing. If the Royals decide to keep him pitching out of relief (which is where it feels like he will ultimately settle), he looks like he could be a late game weapon. I don’t have him breaking camp with the big league team because I’m wondering if the Royals will try to work him as a starter for a bit longer. If the Royals decide for sure that his future is in the bullpen, he moves ahead of Cruz on my projection.