Another crash landing

The Bell Axiom has been invoked a lot this season, which is something that boggles the mind. For the uninitiated, the Bell Axiom is named after former Royals manager Buddy Bell who, once, after a tenth-consecutive loss, told a reporter that, “I never say it can’t get worse.”

It has seemed an appropriate quote for a team sliding deeper and deeper down the American League standings, searching for rock bottom and then going even further into the aybss.

On Tuesday, as the Royals fell to another crushing defeat, this one a 4-3 loss in 10 innings to the Cincinnati Reds, another quote from a former Royals manager jumped to mind. Back in 2014, as the Royals were inching toward their first postseason appearance in 29 years, every game took on significant meaning. In a tight contest against the Boston Red Sox, the Sox rallied in the sixth inning, putting two runners on. Needing a strikeout to hold the rally at bay, Yost opted to use Aaron Crow in relief. Crow walked a batter to load the bases and then surrendered a grand slam to Daniel Nava.

This is what Yost said after that game when asked about why he didn't bring in Kelvin Herrera into a high-leverage situation, who was a much better reliever than Crow:

“Aaron Crow’s inning is the sixth inning. Kelvin’s is the seventh.”

To say Yost was a stubborn manager may be underselling the former Royals skipper. He just knew things, damnit. He knew the sixth inning belonged to Aaron Crow, just like the seventh was meant for Kelvin Herrera.

And there I was, listening to Tuesday's game on the radio as Matt Strahm, fresh off the IL from a knee strain served up a leadoff home run in the eighth and then when Lucas Erceg dished up a tasty, elevated changeup in the ninth, thinking about Ned Yost, Aaron Crow and Kelvin Herrera.

The ninth inning belongs to Lucas Erceg. Or something.

Mind you, that trio from 2014 is not the same as Matt Quatraro, Strahm and Erceg. This is not a playoff team. Not by a long shot. However, Quatraro, for all his reliance on input and data and whatnot, is still clinging to the baseball trope that there has to be a set up man and there has to be a closer. Under normal circumstances, with an even moderately functioning bullpen, that’s still an acceptable way to manage. It’s no way to run a bullpen full of instigators and saboteurs.

No, Lucas Erceg was not the ideal guy for the ninth inning to protect a one-run lead on Tuesday. Yes, I am aware that options are thin. We know that insanity has been defined as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. These are Erceg’s last four appearances dating back to an outing in, what was at the time a five-run lead, to get some work in as he hadn’t pitched in a week.

5/24 - 1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 1 SO
5/25 - 1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 0 SO
5/26 - 0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 0 SO
6/2 - 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 SO

This is not ninth inning material. It is, indeed, insanity to keep using him as if everything is hunky-dory.

So who does Quatraro bring in in that situation where the Royals are hanging on to a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth inning. Strahm, fresh back from the IL? John Schreiber? Daniel Lynch IV?

We know that Schreiber gave up the walk-off hit in the 10th, allowing the Reds Manfred Man to score. He’s not really an ideal candidate. Lynch is probably the most appealing option, but my confidence in him being consistent in that role isn’t exactly high. I’m not sure you put Strahm in that ninth inning situation when he hasn’t throw a competitive pitch in almost three weeks.

The rest of the bullpen is wholly uninspiring. Alex Lange, Mason Black and Steven Cruz are untrustworthy. Beck Way is the fresh face in the relief corps, but that’s never going to happen.

Basically, there isn’t a correct answer. I wouldn’t trust any of these guys to lock down a win in a tight ballgame. This is an untrustworthy bullpen. However, I do know there is a wrong answer and that’s currently Lucas Erceg. I wrote it on Monday and I’ll yell louder for those in the back: The Royals cannot keep running Erceg out in the ninth inning expecting him to succeed. Maybe sometime he will figure things out and become a solid and dependable reliever. That is not the current reality.

Unless the Royals are waving the white flag on this season and going all-in on building for the future and the team is convinced that Erceg is the future closer on a pennant contending club and these painful outings will forge a more powerful closer when the games are really and truly important. Otherwise, this is managerial malpractice.

Golly, that brings to mind another Ned Yost quote. You know, the one about not pinch hitting for Alcides Escobar and getting into player’s domes.