Let’s build a batting order

Hot on the heels of this week’s Opening Day roster projection, it’s time to figure out the optimal Royals lineup.

Based on the roster, we know the lineup is going to be a living, breathing organism, constantly evolving based on matchups and performance. Last season, manager Matt Quatraro utilized 128 different batting orders. That’s actually fairly stable. Especially considering in his first season at the helm, Quatraro used a whopping 158 different lineups.

This was the most common Royals batting order last season:

India - R
Witt - R
Pasquantino - L
Garcia - R
Perez - R
Caglianone - L
Loftin - R
Rave - L
Isbel - L

I would not have guessed that the Royals most frequently used lineup in 2025 included both Nick Loftin and John Rave.

Suffice it to say, those two don’t figure in my optimal 2026 Royals lineup. But they’re the only two from that ’25 batting order who does not make the cut.

Who hits leadoff?

There has been plenty of discussion this spring centered around the leadoff role. Some obvious names have been floated like Jonathan India or Maikel Garcia. Some names—like Vinnie Pasquantino—are not as obvious. Or likely.

Last season, India received the lion’s share of the plate appearances at the top of the lineup card, totalling 453 plate apperances. Manager Matt Quatraro’s second and third options were Mike Yastrzemski (139 PAs) and Garcia (96 PAs).

India wasn’t anything special hitting leadoff, posting a .321 OBP. That was about 12 points below the league average at that spot. (Still, for all the grief India took last year, his OBP at the top of the order was better than the collective .270 OBP that Royals leadoff hitters posted in 2024.) Yaz has departed for Atlanta. Garcia, who scuffled in the role in 2023, really took to the spot last summer, with a .404 OBP.

As noted, India and Garcia remain options at the top. Newcomer Isaac Collins didn’t hit leadoff at all last year for the Brewers, but did finish with a .368 OBP, suggesting a fit, despite the lack of experience. Bobby Witt Jr., who is hitting leadoff for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic is another possibility.

For part of this exercise, I visited David Pinto’s Lineup Analysis tool. This has been around for almost two decades so it’s not as up to date as you’d like as far as incorporating data into an output, but hey…this exercise is hardly scientific. The tool asks for OBP and slugging percentages, so since I'm projecting, I initially used ZiPS. Except ZiPS doesn’t really like the Royals offense—only three players are projected to be above average. That’s not exactly fun. So I ran another lineup using Steamer, which is quite a bit more bullish on the Royals offense.

Using ZiPS, India is the runaway favorite as the leadoff man. With Steamer, it’s Collins. The difference? ZiPS projects a higher OBP for India while Steamer favors Collins. In other words, among the players in the lineup who lack a certain amount of power, who gets on base with greater frequency? That’s your leadoff man.

If I had a pencil, I would use it to write Collins’ name at the top of the lineup card.

Book it: Witt hits second

I don’t think this is even up for discussion. Sure, Witt is supposed to be leading off for Team USA, but that lineup is stacked. Stacked. That is not an adjective I would use when writing about the Royals lineup.

An adjective I would use is "improved" or “upside.” As you’ll see, the Royals are counting on good showings from a rookie and a guy who scuffled in his debut season. For this lineup to realize its full potential, Witt needs to hit second. So hit there he shall.

The heart of the order

For fans of a certain age (which, ahem, includes yours truly) the third spot in the Royals lineup was the purview of one George Brett. In the 70s and 80s, that’s where the best batter hit. Today, it’s moved up a spot to second. Still, the third, fourth and fifth placed hitters need to be those proverbial run producers.

Witt is the best hitter in the lineup. Full stop. Who are the next three? Those are the guy who should fill out the spots immediately behind Witt at second, in some order. Last season, that was the trio of Garcia, Pasquantino and Salvador Perez.

The one thing the lineup optimizer does not take into consideration is if the batter hits from the left or the right side of the plate. In Quataro’s lineup world, that matters, especially for the top two-thirds or so. That’s why Pasquantino had the third spot locked down for most of the 2025 season. He was the left-handed counterbalance to Witt hitting from the right side.

After that, it’s last year’s breakout star, Garcia from the right side. Then you know who the projection systems love? Yep…Caglianone. (Except PECOTA. We’re not going to talk about that.) ZiPS sees him as the second-best hitter (along with Pasquantino) while Steamer has him just behind the Pasquatch. Either way, both expect him to put up some big numbers. By going right-left-right, the middle of the order would go Pasquantino-Garcia-Caglianone.

If you're going to have both Pasquantino and Caglianone in the lineup, I don't see ever bumping Garcia up to the third spot, unless you're dropping Caglianone. Quatraro isn't adverse to pairing Witt and Garcia in the batting order, but a back-to-back of the Pasquatch and Cags does not make any kind of sense.

And remember, this is a projected ideal lineup. Caglianone needs to perform to justify his spot here. The projections think he will do it. I think he will do it. Yet that's not enough...we do not make the lineup. It's up to Cags to come up with the goods.

We need to talk about Salvador Perez

The most common batting order position for The Captain in both simulations using ZiPS and Steamer? Eighth.

Yep. Eighth.

I understand that’s blasphemous among a large segment of Royals fans. While I would concur that Perez in the eighth spot is too low, I don’t think it’s that far off.

I fully expect Perez to bash somewhere around 25 home runs this year. I also figure him for a sub-.300 OBP. That’s tough to justify hitting higher in the order if that order is built for contention.

For now, I would pencil Perez in at sixth with Carter Jensen hitting behind him at seventh. That keeps the alternating sides of batters in order and keeps some of the heat off of Jensen as he embarks on his first full season in the majors. (Yes, there's probably some inconsistency here where I throw an unproven Cags into the fire at the fifth spot, yet keep Jensen down at seven. But someone has to hit there and I'm fairly certain it should not be Perez.) There is plenty of speculation on how the Royals will divvy up the time behind the plate for the two backstops, but as Jensen proved last year in his cup of coffee, he’s ready for the majors. He needs to be in the lineup as frequently as possible. If he's not catching, he can be the designated hitter when the Royals are facing a right-handed starter.

The bottom of the order

Remember how, before the National League ditched the pitcher hitting for the DH, some managers would hit their pitcher eighth? The thinking was that the ninth spot could act as a de facto second leadoff hitter, so the last spot shouldn’t automatically go to the worst hitter in the nine.

When I plugged in a starting nine for the Royals in the Lineup Analyzer, if India was the best option for leadoff (ZiPS version) then Collins would be the ninth hitter. Using Steamer, those roles were reversed.

Have to admit, I kind of dig that. Let Kyle Isbel hit eighth and then India ninth. That “second leadoff hitter” role seems tailor made for India.

So, after all of that, here’s my optimal lineup against a right-handed starter:

Collins - LF - S
Witt - SS - R
Pasquantino - 1B - L
Garcia - 3B - R
Caglianone - RF - L
Perez - C/DH - R
Jensen - C/DH - L
Isbel - CF - L
India - 2B - R

Here's how it looks against a lefty:

India - 2B - R
Witt - SS - R
Pasquantino - 1B - L
Garcia - 3B - R
Caglianone - RF - L
Perez - C/DH - R
Marte - DH - R
Thomas - CF - R
Collins - LF - S

It’s not exactly revolutionary, but Pinto’s Lineup Analyzer says, based on the optimism of Steamer, the lineup against right-handers would average about 4.9 runs per game. ZiPS says it would check in at around 4.4 runs per game. Either way, it’s an improved lineup from last season when the Royals offense averaged just 4 runs per game. I don't have the projected runs produced for the platoon lineup against lefties, but by stacking the order with more hitters from the right side and flip-flopping Collins and India in the order to take advantage of how they have done historically against left-handed pitching, I think it's in the same neighborhood.

The Royals.tv broadcast made it’s debut for Thursday night’s Rangers/Royals run-palooza. Seriously, what was going on in Arizona on Thursday? The Royals game ended with a 15-9 score, which seems like a ton of runs until you see the 14-13 Reds and Dodgers game and the—gulp—27-6 scoreline between the Padres and Mariners.

It was good to hear Jake Eisenberg on the call and I thought newcomer Bridget Howard did a fine job interviewing players as they exited the game. I liked the scorebug in the lower right, although I think the size could decrease by about 10 percent or so. The graphics package looked good as well. If you missed this one, the next streaming game on Royals.tv will be on March 13 against the Diamondbacks.

It was a promising start, even if they don’t have the games on a cable or satellite system at the moment. I'm afraid that without a standalone app—you have to go through the MLB app—it's going to be a bit daunting for the uninitiated. It's just frustrating that for what, the last three seasons now, there's been a different way to access the games. Still, I’ll feel better about giving them my money once the season gets closer to starting that I ever did about handing over cash to FanDuel or Bally’s or whatever they were called.

If you’re keeping track of the spring roster, the first cut was made on Monday as Eric Cerantola was optioned to Triple-A. Cerentola is currently with Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic.

The Royals currently have 67 players in camp.

Here are the probable pitchers for the next couple of games...

Friday at LAD
Mitch Spence, Hector Neris, Nick Mears, Lucas Erceg, Daniel Lynch IV

Saturday vs CIN
Kris Bubic, Aaron Sanchez, Helcris Olivárez, Shane Panzini

It was kind of weird watching a game like on Thursday where the lineup is bereft of its best hitters, yet there was Cole Ragans on the mound. It's going to continue to be that way for the better part of two weeks.