The tender deadline: Who gets a contract offer from the Royals?

Today is the day for teams to tender contracts to players not already under contract for the 2026 season. It’s basically a declaration of intent from the team on players who don’t have much, if any, leverage. Players with less that three years of major league service time will either accept a deal at some point this winter or have their contract unilaterally renewed at, or close to, the major league minimum salary of $780,000. Players who are eligible for arbitration will eventually negotiate a deal or go through the arbitration process that will take place sometime in February.

Players who are not tendered a contract offer on Friday will become immediate free agents. There will be a lot of movement this afternoon. Quite a few transactions.

The Royals have a number of decisions to make regarding who to keep and who to let go. Some of those decisions have already been made: They outrighted both Kyle Wright and Sam Long off the 40-man roster earlier this month. On Thursday, the club reached an agreement with James McArthur that will pay him $810,000, slightly above major league minimium. McArthur missed all of last season after undergoing elbow surgery but was throwing by the end of the year. The Royals clearly feel he will be able to contribute in 2026.

A decision still needs to be made on 12 players. (Generally, all players not eligible for arbitration will be tendered contracts.) Below, I’ll go through each player, along with their estimated 2026 contract from MLB Trade Rumors, and predict the move the Royals will make.

Jonathan India - $7.4M
Michael Massey - $2M

Let’s start with the elephant in the arbitration room because what the Royals decide to do with India will set the stage for their entire offseason.

First of all, his arbitration estimate from MLB Trade Rumors is a bit too low. India was on a base salary of $5 million last year with several incentives based on games started and plate appearances. He earned most of those, so his total take home pay for 2025 was closer to the estimated $7.4 million you see above. No, he did not have a good season, but arbitration-eligible players generally get a raise of some sort.

Assuming the Royals don’t add a high-priced free agent, India will be the sixth-highest paid player on the Royals roster in 2026, should he be tendered a contract. If the Royals walk away, the will have in the neighborhood of $8 million or so to play with on the trade or free agent markets.

Tendering a deal to India means the Royals believe his struggles in ’25 to be an aberration and that he will, most likely, be their starting second baseman come Opening Day 2026. Or, it could mean the market for second basemen is incredibly weak and they believe India is the best option they have for the position.

As I noted earlier this week, Detroit’s Gleyber Torres accepted the qualifying offer, so he’s off the market. The next-best free agent natural second baseman is Jorge Polanco, but signs are pointing to him returning to Seattle.

Could I interest you in a shortstop? Someone like Bo Bichette? The free agent is probably going to score a seven-year deal on the open market at around $25 million per year. That’s a hefty contract, but one the Royals could swing, realizing the salary rebate they would get if they non-tender India and then taking into consideration the fact that a couple of their larger contracts that expire in a couple of seasons. What I’m saying is, I believe there is enough flexibility on the payroll that the Royals could get a bit creative if they decided to aim high.

I said this would be a prediction-type of post where I hazard a guess as to what I believe the Royals will do…Not I believe they should do. India represents the toughest guess on my part. Why did I pick the most difficult one first?

I can see them looking at the weak market and deciding to focus all of their energy on improving the outfield. I can also see them rolling with India for one more year hoping that he will bounce back if they just drop him at second and leave him there.

However, I don’t think there is a bounce-back season in India and the Royals will non-tender.

If the Royals do non-tender India like I believe they will, that means Massey will get a contract for 2026. At an estimated salary of $2 million, it’s an affordable hedge on the bet that the Royals can find an upgrade at the position.

I would not understand a roster where the Royals decided to keep both players. India is out, Massey is in.

Kris Bubic - $6M
Vinnie Pasquantino - $5.4M
Maikel Garcia - $4.8M

Now for something a little bit easier. These guys are coming back. The only question around Pasquantino and Garcia is if the Royals decide to secure some fiscal certainty by buying out another year or two of their arbitration-eligibility. The timing is right as both are in their first go-round in the arbitration process. Garcia qualifies as a Super Two, so he has four more years of club control. Pasquantino has three more seasons.

I don’t think they extend Bubic. Unlike his teammates above, this is Bubic’s fourth, and final, time through the process, so the Royals would be buying out however many years of free agency. That’s expensive. Having him on an expiring contract gives the Royals a little flexibility ahead of next year’s trade deadline. Plus, the injury history would be enough to give them pause. He last pitched a full season in 2022. If Bubic stays healthy for the first four months of the season, and if the Royals are well off the postseason pace, he could be a highly sought after rental arm. They wouldn’t get as much for him as if they dealt him today, but they would at least get something.

If the Royals are in it and Bubic is healthy and a stud, maybe that’s when the Royals will talk extension. As we saw with Seth Lugo, the Royals and JJ Picollo will negotiate a contract extension with an important player at any time of the season.

Kyle Isbel - $2.7M

The Royals love Kyle Isbel. He’s useful, I suppose. He banks around 1 fWAR a year, making the price right. Really, he’s a fourth outfielder, but the Royals roster has been stocked with fourth outfielder types for the last couple of years.

Until an upgrade arrives, have him roam center, hit ninth and let him bunt all season long.

Isbel is tendered a contract.

John Schreiber - $3.8M
Taylor Clarke - $1.9M

You watch every Schreiber appearance with trepidation, but I suppose that’s part of the charm. He’s always been in Matt Quatraro’s Bullpen Circle of Trust. He remains an affordable option. The salary may give you pause, but I’m convinced Schreiber returns.

You wanna know what I like about Taylor Clarke? The guy generally doesn’t walk many batters. He finished last year with just nine walks allowed in 55.1 innings. There’s a ton of value in a reliever who lives around the strikezone.

Wanna know what I don’t like about Clarke? The dude has a serious home run problem. Since joining the Royals in 2022, he’s allowed 26 home runs in 163.1 innings. That’s a 1.43 HR/9.

So when Clarke is at his best, like he was in 2022 and 2025, he brings value to the middle innings. When Clarke is struggling with walks like he did in 2023, it’s a disaster.

The Royals will bet on Good Clarke showing up for 2026. He’s tendered a contract.

Interlude

As I was writing this, the Royals announced they signed right-handed reliever Alex Lange to a one-year contract. Lange, who pitched at Lee’s Summit West High School, will earn $900,000 next year. He also has an option remaining, so the Royals can use him as one of the guys who shuttles between Omaha and Kansas City.

Lange had success for the Tigers in 2023, saving 26 games while posting a 3.68 ERA and a 27.4 percent strikeout rate. Walks have always been a problem, though. His walk rate in ’23 was 15.6 percent and ballooned the following season to 18.9 percent. That 2024 season was cut short when he suffered a lat injury that required surgery. Recovery meant he lost most of this year.

The Tigers released Lange earlier this week and now he’s back home in Kansas City. I think this signing is merely about adding depth to the bullpen and likely won’t impact any of the decisions on the arbitration-eligible relievers. As of Friday morning, the Royals 40-man roster is full.

Onward.

Daniel Lynch - $1.3M
Angel Zerpa - $1.2M

We have now come to the left-handed portion of this exercise. I don’t think there is any doubt Zerpa is tendered a contract. Like any other middle reliever, he has his good days and his bad ones. When Zerpa is right, though, he’s really damn good.

I think Lynch is back, too, although I am not as convinced about him as I am Zerpa. He feels like Zerpa’s polar opposite: More bad outings than good and lacking any kind of reliever electricity or upside. It pains me to write this, but Lynch is just…nothing special. The Royals can find another lefty if they decide to go shopping.

MJ Melendez - $2.65M

No.

Bailey Falter - $3.3M

The Royals acquired Falter from the Pittsburgh Pirates at the trade deadline. The lefty isn’t a strikeout pitcher by any stretch, but he had been able to parlay a strong BABIP into good overall results prior to the deal. After the trade, though? That BABIP magic melted away and he had a miserable time.

Falter struggled in his two starts, allowing nine runs over eight innings. A move to the bullpen didn’t go much better as he coughed up six more runs in four innings before he landed on the IL with a left bicep contusion. He finished out the season on a minor league rehab assignment in Omaha.

MLB Trade Rumors has Falter listed as a candidate for a non-tender. Don’t forget that Falter had worked with Royals pitching coach Brian Sweeney when both were in the Phillies organization. It won’t surprise you that Falter starting throwing his slider more once he arrived in Kansas City. The Royals and Sweeney see something there. Besides, it’s not like the Royals didn’t know he would be looking at this kind of salary in 2026 when they acquired him.

I just don’t see the team walking away from a guy they dealt for at the trade deadline after just a handful of appearances that went bad. He’s best viewed as a work in progress, something of a wild card for the next season, but the bet here is that he’s tendered a deal. An expensive work in progress, but one that could pay some dividends should the Royals pitching lab be able to unlock something. Besides, starting pitching depth is never a bad thing.

That’s the list…just two non-tenders out of 12 players. That doesn’t seem like much, but the Royals could realize a savings of around $10 million or so between Melendez and India. Every little bit helps and that could go toward finding an upgraded bat the team desperately needs.

I feel good about my predictions, but I’ll add that while I believe the Royals will keep both Lynch and Clarke, it wouldn’t shock me to see one of those relievers non-tendered as well. There’s always a surprise or two at the tender deadline.