Game 10: Victory

Note: I realize this is late. Things came up on Thursday and into Friday that prevented timely delivery of this edition of the newsletter. Still, I had been tracking this homestand intently. To not have a “Game 10” finale, would be like writing a novel and leaving out the final chapter. So, on a night where the Royals took the loss against the Detroit Tigers, this will probably feel dated. But maybe if you’re digging through the archives someday, it will be a fitting coda to what was an outstanding homestand.

When this homestand commenced almost two weeks ago, I wrote this:

First up is three games against the Washington Nationals. That will be followed by three with the White Sox. It’s absolutely critical the Royals take advantage of this soft part of the schedule. After that, it’s four next week with the Texas Rangers, a team they’re fighting with for one of the Wild Card spots.

The Royals need to go 8-2 on this home stand. They can maybe afford to go 7-3. Among their enemies at this point is the schedule. The Royals are running out of games. If they’re going to make a move, the time is now.

Wouldn’t you know…with Thursday’s 6-4 win against the Texas Rangers, they finished their homestand at…8-2. That was two wins versus the Nationals, a three-game sweep of the White Sox and they finished things off by winning three of four against the Texas Rangers. This was, by any account, an outstandingly successful homestand.

As a refresher, here’s how the Wild Card standings looked at the start of this 10-game stretch:

The Royals were two games under .500 and had fallen behind the red-hot Cleveland Guardians in the Central. They were 7.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners for the top spot, which seemed far out of reach. Hell, four games back and needing to pass three teams seemed like too large an ask.

Friday? Eight wins out of 10 can shift reality.

Two teams immediately ahead of the Royals a week and a half ago—the Rangers and the Guardians—both went into the tank, winning just three out of 10. In the Wild Card spots, both the Mariners and Red Sox have dropped their pace. And now the Royals have an opportunity.

The Royals outscored their three opponents on this homestand, 55-37. They out-homered them 19-9.

I’m sure fans of a younger generation get tired of us olds talking about things such as this, but back in the day, when the Royals were in the playoffs almost every single year, George Brett truly was on a different plane from his teammates when the games were at their most crucial. The big spots had a knack for finding Brett. He had a knack of coming through in those spots. The clutch gene isn’t supposed to exist. Data tells us it’s not real. Watching George Brett deliver big hit after big hit from 1976 to 1985 says otherwise.

When Vinnie Pasquantino came to the plate this homestand, my mind drifted to George Brett. The homestand was that important and Pasquantino was that good. He carried this offense in these 10 games, hitting .306/.350/.889, good for a wRC+ of 219.

Pasquantino was the leader when it came to power. Bobby Witt Jr. was busy getting on base in this homestand. Hell, here’s how the offense did individually over these last 10 games.

A few things leap off this table. Witt with 16 hits and 10 runs scored. Pasquantino’s six home runs and 16 RBIs. Mike Yastrzemski with six hits, five for extra bases. Nick Loftin with five walks.

Let’s look at the rate stats:

Witt reached base in half his plate appearances on this homestand. That’ll work. He narrowly loses the wRC+ crown to Pasquantino, who posted an .889 slugging percentage over the last 10 games.

We know this was the Pasquantino and Witt show. Or the Witt and Pasquantino show. However you want to describe it. We also know there were key contributions from Mike Yastrzemski and Jonathan India, who will be tied together throughout the remainder of the season. Nick Loftin also pitched in offensively in limited duty. Adam Frazier started the homestand smoking hot, but cooled a bit towards the end but still provided steady production and was in the middle of some big moments.

Basically, the entire offense caught fire at the same time. Watching this team in April and May..and June, I didn’t think this was possible.

Their 19 dingers on this homestand, including at least one in all 10 games, matched the franchise record for home runs on a homestand. The Royals also hit 19 home runs in a 12-game homestand July 28-Aug. 7, 1997.

When the Royals were walked off in Minnesota on August 9, their playoff odds according to FanGraphs stood at 5.4 percent. After winning eight of their next 10, those odds skyrocketed to 23.7 percent.

A considerable odds gap remains, despite the Royals just being two games out of the final spot. But look at the graph above to see how fortunes can change in a tight moment. The Red Sox and the Yankees continue to see their odds grow over the last month or so, while the Rangers have played themselves almost out of contention.