Rocky Mountain low

The worst team in the National League took the Royals to the woodshed on the regular this weekend. The Colorado Rockies didn’t just sweep the Royals, they bullied them at every turn, serving reminder after painful reminder that, while the Rockies are bad at baseball, the Royals are right there with them.

Pick your poison. The Rockies jumped on Michael Wacha early on Friday and while their own starter, Tomoyuki Sugano, pitched to contact (2 strikeouts and no walks in 6.2 innings) the Royals couldn’t break through. Saturday, the Rockies toyed with the Royals, allowing them to grab an early four-run lead before chasing starter Luinder Avila with a six-spot in the third. On Sunday, the Rockies waited until the bullpen entered to break the game open. Why not? Everyone in baseball wants a turn against those stiffs.

In a season chock full of low points, who knows what’s worse...Getting walked off on an ultimate grand slam last Thursday or getting swept by the Rockies? Please don’t answer that.

While the Royals were getting kicked around by the Rox, the trade deadline loomed. Sell, sell, for the love of god sell! This annual marker, and the Royals position in it, is yet another reminder of a season that has gone so horribly wrong.

As something of a habit under President of Baseball Operations and General Manager JJ Picollo, the Royals struck early-ish as the deadline crept closer. In the middle of Saturday’s game, center fielder Lane Thomas was summoned from the field before the bottom of the fourth inning. Hug Watch! He had been traded to Atlanta.

Of anyone on the current 26-man roster, Thomas was always the most likely to be dealt. He was on a one-year contract (the Royals largest free agent signing of last winter, which tipped us all off that something was going backwards) and a right-handed bat, something that was much sought after among the contenders. That he was packaged with exiled starter Bailey Falter was interesting. Combined, both players would be due about $2.5 million of their remaining 2026 salary with Falter accounting for a cool million of that. Did the Royals send Falter along as a sort of freebie, paying down his contract to pry a better prospect? Or was it a salary dump, a means of getting rid of a player who had passed through waivers unclaimed back in June?

Sadly, MLB Trade Rumors reported it was a salary dump, meaning the Royals likely took less prospect value.

As for those prospects, the Royals netted right-handed starter Lucas Braun and lefty Carter Holton. Braun has quite a bit of prospect list variance. MLB Pipeline likes the guy, slotting him in at eighth in the Atlanta system. Baseball America is less enamored, posting him up at number 18. Both prospect evaluators agree that the arsenal is middling, but it’s the array—he throws six pitches—and the command and control of those pitches that make him a pitching prospect. He’s also a reliable starter with an average of 141 innings pitched in the previous three seasons. He’s posted a 3.53 ERA in 94.1 innings this year split between Double and Triple-A.

Braun reached Triple-A last year, too, but he’s thrown just 62.2 innings at that level. With just 42 strikeouts. Still, the Royals think he’s close to The Show.

“That’s the hope…If he’s pitching well and the opportunity is there, we’re not going to close the door on that.”

There is a way for the opportunity to be there. More on that in a moment.

I do think a straight-up Braun for Thomas deal would’ve been fair and am struggling to see the impact that adding Falter had. As noted, MLBTR says it's a salary dump, but it still feels like a wash.

Holton, a pitcher who was a second-round draft pick out of Vanderbilt in 2024, underwent Tommy John surgery in ’25 and only recently made it back to the bump. He’s thrown just 41.2 innings this year with 41 strikeouts and 16 walks and a 4.75 ERA.

Holton is starting games, but as a 5’11 lefty who throws in the low to mid 90s, he projects as reliever material. He strikes me as the lottery pick kind of return. If you want to get dizzy on prospect lists, FanGraphs has Holton listed ahead of Braun. Both are in the middle of the pack.

Thomas shouldn’t be the only Royal on the move as the deadline ticks closer, but would it surprise anyone if the team was done? While the losing is painfully familiar, so is their current state of roster purgatory. The Royals have very little of value they’re seemingly willing to deal. We know the untouchables: Bobby Witt Jr., Carter Jensen, Maikel Garcia and Jac Caglianone.

That looks like a decent offensive core with a foundation built up the middle in Witt and Jensen, a solid left side of the infield in Witt and Garcia, cost-controlled talent in Jensen and Caglianone and a potential power-plus bat in Cags. If I were to do a trade value ranking à la FanGraphs, Witt is the runaway value leader in this core, with Garcia coming in second. Both have signed long-term deals. Jensen and Caglianone still have plenty to prove, but there is a ton of promise with both.

This list would—and should!—look differently, but injuries have turned this team upside down. Starters Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic both would’ve been trade candidates if they had avoided arm trouble. The same could be said for Carlos Estévez in the bullpen. If that trio had been healthy, perhaps the Royals would be buyers at the deadline instead of sellers.

I write that the Royals are “sellers,” but I submit that the Royals need to move more than a platoon outfielder to fall into that category. Even as their 46-67 record has them the third-worst team in the AL. People will point to the corporate motivational quote of insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting a different result. Myself? I prefer something along the lines of those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. It’s much bleaker. And for the Royals, there is a lot of history here and so much repetition. Indeed, it is so very bleak.

Here’s the Royals line of thought as the clock clicks toward the deadline according to MLB.com:

Picollo reiterated that while players such as Thomas, as well as fellow outfielder Starling Marte and reliever John Schreiber -- whose contracts are set to expire at the end of the season -- are on the table, it would take a hefty return to pry controllable pieces away from Kansas City, particularly in the starting rotation.

“If we end up moving another starter, another bullpen piece, now we have a lot of work to do in the offseason,” Picollo said. “We don’t mind the work, but then there’s the reality of how much can you actually get done?”

God, that’s awful. Picollo assembled a roster where his top trade pieces are Thomas and…Starling Marte and John Schreiber? I know this year has been full of disappointment, but...What???

Just for funsies, I assembled a list of players the Royals could move in trades. Many they probably should move. Except, there’s not much in the way of value here, but given the choice of repeating themselves, why not move some players around. Burn some stuff down. Retool, restock and rebuild. Can it get any worse? We never say that around these parts (Buddy Bell!), but I don’t think so.

Also, there are some injured players listed who aren't going anywhere. I have them in the list just as a point of discussion, but the Royals IL list is packed at the moment. It sort of feels like they have to be included.

Kris Bubic
2026 Contract: $6.15 million
2027 Status: Free Agent

I keep seeing Bubic’s name on shortlists of players who could be on the move. That’s baffling to me. (I’m looking at you, Jim Bowden!) He’s been on the IL since mid-May with left elbow soreness, had not one but two rehab assignments cut short with left shoulder soreness and is now on a throwing program where he has progressed to throwing 80 feet. It feels like at this point if Bubic is able to get back on a major league mound this season, that would be akin to hitting the Powerball.

If Bubic were healthy? Sure. And in some universe there is a team desperate for pitching depth that would roll the dice they could squeeze a handful of starts (or relief appearances) out of the lefty. There’s no return of any kind in a deal here, but why not hang an “as-is” sign around his left arm and see if you can find a huckleberry and a couple million in salary relief.

John Schreiber
2026 Contract: $3.715 million
2027 Status: Free Agent

Schreiber is the prototypical Royals reliever: His fast ball lives in the lower 90s, he doesn’t strike out enough batters, he walks a few too many and is prone to the longball. Trust him at your own peril. That said, with his funky, lower slingshot delivery, he can give right-handed hitters fits. When Schreiber has the platoon advantage, righties are hitting just .178/.205/.288 against him. The other side of that coin is lefties are feasting, posting a .347/.449/.613. The Royals problem is that he’s faced right and left-handed hitters about the same amount. If a team can figure out how to limit his exposure to left-handed bats, they could have a nice mid-leverage reliever.

But what is the going rate for a right-handed, mid-leverage relief specialist? Not much.

Let’s take a break and check in on what Bob Nightengale is up to.

Oh. About that…

Seth Lugo
2026 Contract: $20 million
2027 Status: $20 million

This time last year, Lugo was months from free agency and a strong trade candidate. Then, he signed a two-year/$46 million contract extension with a club option for 2028. At 36 years old and with two years of declining performance, that contract is virtually unmovable at this point, unless the Royals were willing to pay it down.

Dream on, though. According to Cot's Contracts, Lugo has a full no-trade clause. That doesn’t mean he cannot be moved, it would just complicate matters. The Royals really boxed themselves in here. I don’t see how they could move him for any kind of return.

Maybe a decent comp is Luis Castillo moving from Seattle to the White Sox. Chicago sent reliever Seranthony Domínguez to offset about $15 million of the $30-odd million due Castillo, along with journeyman former prospect Nolan Jones and catching prospect Boston Smith. Smith was not on the Top 30 list for the White Sox ahead of the trade.

The Royals are not doing that sort of deal.

Michael Wacha
2026 Contract: $18 million
2027 Status: $14 million + $4 million in performance bonuses

Wacha should be an attractive starter on the market. He’s been the best pitcher on the Royals this year and if a contender picks him up for their third or fourth starter role, that would be a formidable October rotation. His contract means he would probably net the highest return of any of the players the Royals will dangle on the market.

However, since the Royals internally view this year as an anomaly that will be corrected in 2027, they seem inclined to keep Wacha in the fold as he’s a dependable veteran that any rotation can use. Between the Kevin Gausman trade that cost the Cubs a couple of mid-level bat prospects and the Tarik Skubal deal as the ceiling, I’m thinking that there’s not much value hanging out there for Wacha—or any starting pitcher. The market seems a bit constricted at the moment so I can’t really dump on Picollo for not making a move. The Royals need major league players for 2027 in any kind of big trade and Wacha would be classified as a "big trade". Now, I’m not sure there’s a major leaguer coming back if they move Wacha. The market is weird and prospects are overvalued.

Wacha has a partial no-trade clause that could complicate matters.

The Royals may think they need Wacha and Lugo to compete in 2027, but if this season has taught us anything is that pitching depth can be burned through in an instant.

Vinnie Pasquantino
2026 Contract: $4.2 million
2027 Status: Signed at $6.7 million

Now in his fourth season, Pasquantino’s walk rate has increased, yet his on base percentage is right in line with his career rate. What’s troubling though, is his strikeouts are up and the power is down. Way down. And that was before he broke the hamate bone in his right hand. He played in 10 games since returning from the injury and hit .306/.405/.333 with one double and one RBI. I always wonder about the national ball writers who write something like “Trade Candidate had a big night, going 4-5 with a home run and a double. That will boost his trade stock!” as if we don’t have a full season—and career—of data. In The Pasquatch’s case, the recent track record would probably scare off teams searching for a left-handed bat or help at first base.

Hamate bone injuries are tricky. They heal but it takes time to regain power. And with his overall offensive production down and the power way down, even before he hit the IL, you could understand why teams would be reluctant. And now he’s back on the IL with a sore hand. There’s future value in a player like Pasquantino, more than FanGraphs would give credit for, but at the moment? Not so much. He should be a candidate for a trade this winter.

Michael Massey
2026 Contract: $1.57 million
2027 Status: Arbitration 2

Call me crazy, but could Massey fetch the second-best return among players on this list? He’s 28 years old, defensively versatile and won’t be a free agent until after the 2028 season. No one will mistake Massey for an All-Star, let alone a trade deadline headliner, but every year there are teams that need solid role players. Guys that the manager can put in the lineup and not worry about or that can come off the bench to impact a game in the later innings. Massey fits that bill.

Daniel Lynch IV
2026 Contact: $1.025 million
2027 Status: Arbitration 2

Being the best reliever in the Royals bullpen simply means he’s worst arsonist. Still, contending teams are always shopping for left-handed bullpen help, and Lynch’s track record this season should make him appealing. The ground ball rate north of 50 percent and the fact that he’s allowed just two home runs means he can depended upon not to totally derail an inning. His 19 percent strikeout rate would have teams a bit wary. Still, his four-seam velocity has ticked up this season and he throws five pitches and could conceivably transition back to the rotation at some point.

My prediction: They move Schreiber and that’s it. Picollo seems really averse to moving players with team control. I understand wanting to keep the foundation intact because they think it’s a winning one, but two years of evidence says otherwise.

They could also move Marte, but he’s not going to bring back anything of value.

Meanwhile, on the transaction front, the Royals placed Luinder Avila on the 15-day IL with a right forearm strain. My god…the injuries just keep coming. They also needed to replace Thomas on the active roster. They activated Kyle Isbel from the IL and selected the contract of lefty reliever Aaron Bummer from Omaha.

Avila will be evaluated when the team returns to Kansas City. Forearm strains are nasty business. I’m starting to think that Tommy John himself has laid a curse on the Royals roster.

With Avila on the shelf, the Royals are running low on starters. Maybe that’s the path for the newly acquired Braun.

Isbel didn’t figure in Sunday’s loss but Bummer got into the action and immediately fit right in as a part of the bullpen, allowing all three runners he inherited from Lugo to score before allowing three of his own. To be fair, two of the three inherited runners crossed when Caglianone misplayed a fly ball in right. Welcome to the Royals, Bummer.

The Royals currently have 14 players on the IL. Ten pitchers. At least Witt is due to return this week. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that he doesn’t spontaneously combust between now and then.

On Sunday the Royals announced that Tyler Tolbert was their Player of the Month for July when the pitching honors went to Randy Dobnak. No shade intended for Tolbert and Dobnak, but there are reminders everywhere that this season has been a staggering disappointment.

Still, it was quite a deserved honor for Tolbert. All the guy did was hit .425/.452/.700 in 40 at bats in July to go along with that insane stretch where he reached base 12 consecutive times. He wasn’t all infield singles, either. That slugging percentage was fourth-best in the majors. Respect.

The Royals are off on Monday, home after their 10-game road trip where they went 3-7. The trade deadline is at 5 PM, Central.

The Twins are in town for a three-game starting on Tuesday. Let's hope they trade Kody Clemens on Monday. Nobody needs to see that guy in Kansas City. After the Twins, it's the Cubs for three. Another series where the visiting contingent will be louder than the home town fans. Sigh.