Same as it ever was

Rita: Do you ever have déjà vu?
Phil: Didn't you just ask me that?

At this point, why would you expect anything different. The dates on the calendar and the cities and opponents change. The results? Those somehow remain the same.

For the second consecutive night the Royals lost a late game to the Detroit Tigers. For the second consecutive night the final score was 2-1 in favor of Detroit.

Unlike Tuesday's game, on Wednesday the Royals never had the lead. While in both games the Royals bullpen permitted the Tigers to move ahead in the eighth, the result Wednesday had a touch of apathy. The Royals fell behind early, tied the game in the middle innings and then failed to score the rest of the way. A bit different from having a lead and giving it all away. But when the offense scores just one run in both games, it's hard to lay the blame at the feet of the bullpen.

Home plate umpire Jansen Visconti had his own personal Groundhog Day in the third inning (Groundhog Inning?), when he had not one, but two calls at home plate overturned. The first came with a runner on first when Javy Báez laced a liner down the right field line. Jac Caglianone got to the ball quickly and the Royals executed a near-perfect relay going from Caglianone to Michael Massey to Salvador Perez. The throw from Massey was just a touch up the third base line and Zach McKinstry, trying to score from first, was initially called safe. The replay said otherwise and the run was erased from the board.

Báez advanced to third on the throw home which was important because the next batter, Jake Rogers, lofted a fly deep down the right field line. Caglianone made the catch and then uncorked an absolute beauty of a throw to gun down Báez at the plate. The initial call was out; replay again said otherwise. Báez executed the most perfect slide around Perez's glove to tap home plate and avoid the tag.

In some ways, it felt as if there was a balancing of replay karma.

Up to that point in the game, the Royals had the best scoring opportunity of the night. Yeah, that doesn't mean a thing with the Royals these days, but Caglianone scorched a leadoff triple just to the left of center to open up the third. If the Royals had a functioning offense, you would really like their chances to plate that run. Since the Royals do not have said functioning offense, thoughts immediately turn to how will the Royals squander this golden opportunity. If you predicted contact play, please see the cashier to collect your winnings.

Sometimes, the failure just sets itself up perfectly. In this case, Lane Thomas, hitting behind Cags, hit a fly ball to center. It traveled just 238 feet with a launch angle of 53 degrees. High and not far. Caglianone had to hold his ground. So when a team has one out with a runner on third, that's prime territory for the contact play meaning the runner on third will break for home the moment the bat meets the ball. With the Tigers infield drawn in, there's a good chance that a ground ball could scoot through. I will remind you these are the April 2026 Royals. The same Royals as the April 2025 Royals. Ground balls simply do not just "get through". In this case, Gleyber Torres moved a step to his forehand side, spun and uncorked a strong throw to cut down Caglianone at the plate. Rally squashed.

The Royals did plate a run two innings later, due to the largesse of Detroit starter Jack Flaherty who suddenly lose his command and was firing the ball all over the place, walking Massey and Caglianone on five pitches each. Flaherty recalibrated and struck out Thomas in a nine-pitch battle but then Kyle Isbel singled to bring home the tying run. I thought I heard fireworks go off in my neighborhood when that happened. Maybe not, but it's certainly worth celebrating when the Royals get a hit with a runner in scoring position. On the night they were 1-9 with RISP. For the season, they are hitting .192/.272/.238 when they are presented with a scoring opportunity. That translates to a 61 OPS+. That's the worst production in the league in that situation and it's not even close. There isn't another team that has an OPS+ below 80 when hitting with runners in scoring position.

My god, the Royals offense has been beyond abysmal in the first three weeks of the season.

While the bats were fueling frustration, Royals starter Seth Lugo was putting the second half of the 2025 season firmly in the rear view mirror. Lugo threw 6.2 innings on Wednesday, allowing five hits and striking out seven. He allowed that one run and his ERA dropped to 1.48 on the young season.

As a rotation, the Royals starting pitching has been outstanding in the early weeks of the season. They have a 2.64 ERA, the best in the majors. I'm just not sure they're going to be able to sustain this success. "No kidding", you're saying to yourself. " The Royals starters aren't routinely going to allow just a run in each start." Of course not. But there are other indicators that will give us pause. For one, their expected ERA is almost two runs higher at 4.44. Their strand rate of 81 percent is likewise too elevated for my taste. In other words, the Royals bats are wasting what has been an excellent run from their starters.

But you already knew that.

Once again, I was particularly taken by how Lugo attacked the Detroit hitters as the game progressed.

Fastball heavy the first time through the order with 54 percent of his pitches either a sinker or four-seam. He mixed in a few more curves and sweepers the second time through while still leaning on the four-seamer. The third time he was more on the slider and curve while eschewing his fastballs. There's a method there that works for Lugo and frustrates hitters who are seeing a completely different array of pitches each time they come to the plate.

As good as the starters have been in the early part of the season, the Royals bullpen has struggled. They're walking over 13 percent of the batters they've faced and allowed a 5.62 ERA. While it looks like the Royals starters have had a touch of luck on their side, the relief corps has not had the same kind of fortune. Their strand rate is just 69.5 percent and they have a 3.97 xERA. The problem with using luck—or lack thereof—as a crutch is that when the margins are so thin thanks to an offense that can't do a damn thing, any kind of stumble exposes the pitching. It just so happens the bullpen is bearing the brunt. That was the situation Eli Morgan found himself in in the eighth inning on Wednesday. Pitching in a 1-1 game, he gave up what turned out to be the game-winning home run to Wenceel Pérez. It wasn't a bad pitch and it wasn't as if Pérez clobbered the ball. Morgan delivered a 1-1 changeup on the lower edge of the zone. Pérez just went down and golfed it out.

When luck is against you...

It's a risk to, night after night, rely on your bullpen to get the job done.

Not a lot of happy within this dispatch, but we have to acknowledge the night Caglianone had at the plate. He reached base all four times he was up with a walk, two singles and the aforementioned triple. No, the home runs aren't there...yet. You get the feeling it's only a matter of time. On Wednesday, two of the balls Cags put into play had exit velocities north of 108 mph, making them the two hardest-hit balls of the game.

On base four times and he did not score.

There has been quite a bit of angst over the batting order, including our little stoop that is this newsletter. It's loud enough that at this point I do find myself waiting in something of anticipation for the day's lineup card to drop. As I get ready to publish this around 7 a.m. on Thursday morning, I wonder if we will see something different in a couple hours time.

1-2
2-10
0-2
2-0
2-0
5-6
1-2
1-2

Those are the scores of the last week's worth of Royals games. The offense has scored 14 times in the last eight games. That averages out to 1.75 runs per game. They are 2-6 in this span because they were fortunate enough to play the Chicago White Sox and shut them out twice.

Going back even further, of the first six series of the season for the Royals, four have come against their Central Division rivals. It was an early season test for this team. They are not passing.

Thursday is the final run of this stretch of games against the Central. The Royals record thus far has been five wins against seven defeats. Not good by any stretch, but not catastrophic either. A win today would look a lot better in the W-L columns, even as the offense gives you agita.

Baseball remains a funny game.