This bullpen ruins everything

The were no runners on base and the Royals were winning 3-0 with two outs in the ninth inning.

They lost, 4-3.

It’s a brutal, brutal loss. The worst loss yet, in a season stacked with them. What an absolute waste. There's a labor war on the horizon that threatens the 2027 season, but I'm left to wonder if the owners could preemptively lockout the Royals bullpen? It would be helpful to our collective psyches.

It was the second time this series the Royals were walked off and a total of nine times this year. Twice, they have exited after a grand slam. But this one...this one was something else.

Lucas Erceg was called on to get the final three outs. I am not going to criticize Matt Quatraro’s bullpen calls because you have basically Option A which is terrible, Option B which is horrible and Option C which is dreadful. At this point all the manager can do is cross his fingers that the reliever he taps won’t spit the bit.

Erceg, who hadn’t pitched since Sunday’s win in Detroit where he pitched a scoreless inning, started well enough. He got Trevor Larnach to strikeout with a nasty slider that rode in on his hands. He then got Victor Caratini to softly line out to short on a well-placed sinker on the outside corner. The scene vibed the idyllic scenes early in a slasher movie. You know, before the slasher actually shows up to wreak havoc.

In soccer, the cliché goes that the most dangerous lead is 2-0. That’s insane, really, but line of thought is that it makes the leading team complacent where they settle into a defensive mode and allow the trailing team to attack in waves. I’m workshopping a way to amend that to baseball. Where the most dangerous situation for the Royals bullpen is two outs in the ninth inning with a lead.

So with two outs, Erceg hit Ryan Jeffers. Fine. Okay. He then got ahead of Royce Lewis 0-2 before he threw three consecutive pitches well off the plate. On the third one, a slider, Lewis threw his bat out for an emergency hack and the ball grounded up the middle for a single. Uh…sure. Josh Bell was next. Again Erceg started out 0-2. He then unleashed four consecutive pitches out of the zone. Gulp.

The bases were loaded.

With the left-handed hitting Kody Clemens due up, Quatraro opted for a lefty out of the bullpen. Daniel Lynch IV had pitched in the two previous games in this series. He has not thrown on three consecutive days ever in his major league career. This meant Matt Strahm got the call.

If you didn’t think that he would give up a home run, you haven’t watched enough Royals baseball this summer.

Even after Strahm jumped ahead 0-2 to Clemens, you just had that feeling that something bad was on the horizon. When Strahm unleashed a slider that glided over the center of the plate, you sensed dark clouds forming. When said slider hung, suspended for a moment and Clemens cocked his bat and strode forward to meet the pitch, you knew this was not destined to end well.

Watching the broadcast, the cut to the outfield was stomach-churning. The tall wall in right-center, the way that right fielder Nick Loftin was angled toward the wall. At the very least, this was going to tie the game. Yet with this bullpen there are no “worst-case scenarios.” There are only “scenarios.”

As the ball sailed over the wall in right-center, that meant it was not a least-likely or unexpected outcome. I guess there’s solace to be found in the fact that this bullpen has been dreadful all season. There is no pain when a win is carelessly discarded. Erceg, Strahm, et al are baseball novocain. We have now moved on to the acceptance stage of bullpen grief. This is what the Royals relievers do. They are destroyers of hope.

My favorite part of all of this is the press gaggle after the game when they ask the inevitable, "How do you move on from this?" The answer is, without fail, some variation of, "Just flush it and move on." Yes, just flush it. Great idea except the drain is clogged and there isn't a big enough plunger in the world to fix it.

The Strahm slider should not have been over the plate. Not on an 0-2 count when he jumped ahead with two sinkers. It needed to be off the outer edge, a pitch that, if Clemens pulls the trigger, he will at the very least foul off or get weak contact. A ball off the plate sets things up for another sinker up and in. That pitch should have never, ever been anywhere close to that location. It was begging to be crushed. And it was.

Noah Cameron didn’t deserve this. All the lefty did was twirl eight magnificent innings of one-hit ball. The only hit he allowed came in the seventh inning. He walked just two against seven strikeouts. He was, in a word, brilliant. With a Game Score of 85, it was the best start of his career. Hell, it was the best start of the season for the Royals. In fact, by Game Score, it was the best start of the Matt Quatraro/Brian Sweeney era. The story of the game should be how he dominated the Twins. It is not. The Royals bullpen spoils everything.

Since Cameron has been calling his own pitches in the last two starts, he’s been relying on his cut fastball and changeup as his top two offerings. The cutter is a get-ahead pitch that Cameron got a called strike or a whiff on 45 percent of the time. He was dotting the zone with it, finding the middle of plate, but there was a deception in the pitch that meant the Twins couldn’t get around on it.

These were the first pitch cutters that Cameron threw on the afternoon. Seven of eight went for strikes.

The cutter was coming it at around 90 mph. The changeup was clocked on average at 81 mph. The tunneling and differences in speed and movement, particularly the run on the changeup, meant it was the perfect compliment to the cut fastball.

Cameron didn’t get a single called strike on the change, but did get five misses on 15 swings. He alternated with his cutter for the first pitch and got five strikes on six pitches. Add those first pitches (his change and cutter) together and you have 12 first-pitch strikes in 14 at bats.

Getting ahead in the count is key for any pitcher. Cameron is no different, but it's something he really needs to do to have success. Coming into Thursday’s game, the lefty throttles opposing hitters when jumping ahead with the first strike, allowing a .201/.229/.333 line with an 84 OPS+ if he gets ahead. That means he’s 16 percent better than league average. Conversely, if Cameron throws a ball out of the zone with his first pitch, opposing batters hit .293/.399/.484 with a 117 OPS+. That's a massive difference in outcomes. It made a difference on Thursday.

Since I love Game Score so much, here are the starts for the Royals this year that finished with a Game Score of 80 or higher:

Normally, if you get a start like that, you win the game. I suppose it's a good thing they're 3-1 in the four starts above. Take the silver lining where you can find it.

Sarah Langs, the keeper of all things home runs, had a few notes about what we witnessed on Thursday.

This seems suboptimal.

Tom Tango got in on the fun, noting that Clemens had the highest possible gain of Win Probability Added for a single pitch or swing.

When Erceg retired Caratini on that soft liner for the second out of the inning, the Royals had a 99.5 percent Win Probability.

Here are the bullpens that have accumulated a negative fWAR in 2026:

Cubs: -0.4 fWAR
Athletics: -0.5 fWAR
Reds: -0.9 fWAR
Nationals: -2.4 fWAR
Royals: -3.4 fWAR

The Royals don't just have the worst bullpen in the majors...they are the worst by a massive margin.

The other good thing that happened in this game that was overshadowed by another shambolic appearance by the bullpen was Jac Caglianone absolutely obliterated a baseball.

The ball hits the flag in right field. Officially, the distance was 438 feet. When Caglianone’s bat met the baseball, it created a vacuum. The noise, not just of the violence of contact, but of the crowd that came over the broadcast was insane. It was as if the ball punched a hole through the ozone above Target Field. A gasp, a whoosh…It was otherworldly.

It would've been cool if this, along with Cameron's start, could've been the focus after the ballgame. Sadly, the ninth inning put that to rest.