What I want to see in Surprise

Camps are open. Pitchers and catchers are participating in bullpens. Those playing in the World Baseball Classic are taking their hacks. The first official full squad workout is on Monday.

There are always things to watch in spring. Even as the players quickly settle into a routine, it’s a good idea to pay attention to what’s happening in camp. Here are four things I’ll be looking for in the weeks ahead.

An unleashed—to an extent—Kris Bubic, Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans

Both Kris Bubic and Cole Ragans missed significant time in 2025. Ragans dealt with a groin strain early in the season and then a rotator cuff strain that lopped off about half his season. Bubic was shutdown with a rotator cuff strain of his own just a couple of starts after the All-Star break. Lugo, after a lengthy period of ineffectiveness, missed the final month of the season with a lower back strain.

I write “unleashed—to an extent” because the Royals need those three to have extremely normal springs. That means bullpen sessions in the middle of February before getting into game action and building up to their Opening Day level of fitness with no aches or pains that would be out of the ordinary. The Royals, if they are to contend, need all three to be healthy and ready to go.

Ragans returned to make three starts before the end of the season and was dominant, striking out 22 against just four walks and six hits in 13 innings of work. That finish was important because it allowed Ragans to go into a normal offseason where he could recover and then start his normal throwing program. According to a report from Anne Rogers, Ragans spent some time this winter again at Tread Athletics where he worked on exercises that he will use in his recovery routine between starts.

Bubic won his arbitration case against the Royals this week. (He will make $6.15 million. The Royals offered $5.15 million.) According to Rogers, even though he finished the year on the IL, Bubic was able to have a fairly routine winter of throwing on flat ground in November and then off the mound in January.

It will be a little more difficult to keep tabs on Lugo, as he will be departing camp early to pitch for Team Puerto Rico. But as I wrote earlier this week, Lugo participating in the tournament means the Royals are confident he’s on track for 2026.

A rested and relaxed Jac Caglianone taking advantage of the thin desert air and hitting baseballs on the regular to Yuma…and beyond

This one feels all kinds of obvious. We all know that Jac Caglianone’s rookie campaign was a bust. He showed flashes, but could not find the consistency required to be an effective major league hitter.

There’s no better place for Caglianone to build some confidence than against some Double-A pitchers in the hitter’s delight that is the Cactus League. Of course owning spring training is far different from doing it in the majors (remember MoustakAZ?), but if this guy needs anything, it’s sustained success. It doesn’t matter where it happens. He just needs to get into a groove and mash.

I think it could help that, after a couple of weeks in the Royals camp, he will report to Team Italy for the World Baseball Classic. He will face a gamut of pitching as the Italians will be in a group with the United States, Mexico, Great Britain and Brazil. Those high stakes games will be a nice mid-spring barometer to see how he’s progressing.

As JJ Picollo has said, the right field position is not his. He has to earn it. So there will be a smidge of pressure. I’m excited to see how he handles everything coming his way over the next couple of months.

Lucas Erceg building up his velocity so he will be hitting 98 mph-plus when the season opens

Here is Lucas Erceg’s average four-seam velocity since his rookie season:

2023 - 98 mph
2024 - 98.6 mph
2025 - 97.6 mph

So Erceg lost a tick off his fastball from 2025. Big deal you say! Except it was a big deal for the reliever. The heat Erceg brings sets up his other three pitches he will feature. All of them were negatively impacted in unique ways last season. The whiff rate on his sinker went from 21 percent in 2024 to 8.4 percent in 2025. Opponents went from slugging .140 against his slider to .407. The average exit velocity on his change was 82.5 mph in 2024 to 86.1 mph in 2025. In other words, the decline in four-seam velocity led to him being much less effective than he was in 2024.

Of course he wasn’t entirely healthy last year. He missed time in the middle of the season with a lower back strain and then ended the year with a shoulder impingement. A healthy—and feisty—Erceg would be one of the lynchpins in the back of the bullpen and could even see a handful of save opportunities.

Carter Jensen looking set to build off of his spectacular cup of coffee

KC-area native Carter Jensen had a dream September playing for his hometown club. He mashed three home runs and six doubles in just 60 at bats, hitting a robust .300/.391/550. What a way to introduce yourself.

That small sample of excellence has inflated his prospect stock. Baseball America has him as the 11th best prospect in the game, hanging the backstop with a 60-grade power tool and 55-grade hit tool. Baseball Prospectus has him merely at number 44, but sees his ceiling as an All-Star.

MLB Pipeline ranked him at number 18 with a couple of eye-watering comps:

Jensen has shown steady offensive progress throughout his career. He became less passive and more willing to swing at drivable pitches in 2024. He lowered his hands in his stance and became quicker to the ball in 2025. Thanks to that, Jensen ran a 107.3 mph 90th-percentile exit velocity at Triple-A (George Springer and Bryce Harper territory), and that jumped to 108.1 mph in his smaller MLB sample.

Rarely will you see me sweat the Spring Training stats. They are absolutely meaningless. However, it is important for players to perform. With Salvador Perez departing for the World Baseball Classic, Jensen will grab the mantle of top catcher in camp for at least a few weeks. He handled the pressure adroitly in his first go-round in the majors. He has to show immunity to the sophomore slump.

JJ Picollo working the phones

With pitchers and catchers working out this week, the offseason has officially closed. Consider me underwhelmed—again—with the work general manager JJ Picollo did to solidify the Royals outfield situation.

Last season, Royals outfielders collectively posted a -1.0 fWAR. That’s horrific. And entirely unacceptable for a team that began the season with postseason aspirations. Their top three players, by fWAR, were Mike Yastrzemski (1.5 fWAR), Kyle Isbel (1.0 fWAR) and Maikel Garcia (0.4 fWAR). Yaz is in Atlanta and Garcia is at third. It is impossible to understate the fact that this team needs outfielders.

Picollo did work this winter, acquiring Isaac Collins in a trade and picking up Lane Thomas in free agency. He also traded for Kameron Misner. These are all positive moves, but given that there was nowhere to go but up, it sort of feels like the bare minimum was accomplished. While I expect the trio on the grass to perform better collectively in 2026—Caglianone was worth -1.1 fWAR in his debut campaign—more needs to be done. The team has sort of reset the goalposts by saying they will be exploring opportunities all season, up to the trade deadline, the sooner this is addressed the better. The cost in a trade may be high, but that’s kind of the position the Royals are in. They are going to have to give up something to improve. And they need to improve.