The Royals will sign Seth Lugo to a contract extension

Breaking news late Sunday night, as reports emerged that the Royals and Seth Lugo were in agreement on a contract extension that will keep the right-hander in Kansas City for the foreseeable future.

With the Royals on the fringes of the postseason hunt, Lugo had emerged as one of the more talked-about pitchers who could be on the move as the trade deadline approached. Now, he’s not going anywhere.

Anne Rogers reports the deal will be for two years and $46 million. The entire contract is a bit more involved. Lugo will earn $20 million in 2026 and $20 million in 2027. He will also pocket a $3 million signing bonus. There is also a vesting option for the 2028 season. (I would imagine that it’s based on innings pitched, but details were not available when I hit the “publish” button.) That vesting option is worth $20 million. If that isn’t triggered, there’s a club option for $17 million with a $3 million buyout. So that’s how we get to two years and $46 million.

As of publication time, the team has not announced the extension.

Lugo pitched the first seven seasons of his career in New York for the Mets, primarily as a reliever. He became a full-time starter when he left New York as a free agent, signing with San Diego for two years and $15 million. That second year, though, was a player option. It was an option that Lugo declined after throwing 146.1 innings with a 3.57 ERA and 3.83 FIP while making 26 starts for the Padres.

Lugo joined the Royals ahead of the 2024 season, signing a three year/$45 million deal that included a player option for 2026. Given the success he’s had in the first season-plus of his time in Kansas City, it was obvious that Lugo was going to turn down that extension and hit the free agent market after this year. Given that likelihood, the Royals had a handful of options themselves.

One, they could either trade him ahead of the deadline, netting a prospect or two. Preferably a corner outfield bat, which is a position where the Royals desperately need improvement.

Two, the Royals could’ve held on to him until the end of the season and given him a qualifying offer that would presumably be north of $21 million. Had Lugo accepted, the Royals would probably be fine. If he declined, they would net an extra draft pick.

Or three, they could sign him to an extension before he hit the open market, as the team did last winter with Michael Wacha.

They are going with door number three. I have zero issues with this.

Lugo is a guy who will be 36 years old in 2026, but because he was primarily a reliever early in his career, he has relatively low mileage on his right arm. He has thrown 960 major league innings since making his debut 10 years ago. He also feels like a reasonably low injury risk, given his mechanics and the way he delivers an array of nine different pitches.

The reported contract is a very good piece of business for the Royals. Last offseason, starting pitchers like Sean Manaea (33 years old in 2025) signed a deal with an AAV of $25 million. Yusei Kikuchi (33 years old) found a deal at a $21 million AAV. And Nathan Eovaldi (35 years old) got three years and $75 million. We are talking about Lugo, a starting pitcher with a relatively limited but successful track record coming in at two years and $46 million.

I implore you not to listen to the outside prognosticators who will dump on the Royals for extending Lugo. This is a fair deal that is probably a little under market value, had Lugo stayed healthy for the rest of this season and become a free agent. Lugo is comfortable in Kansas City. The Royals are comfortable with Lugo. This is not without risk (show me a starting pitcher signing that’s without risk), but this is a very good contract for both the team and player.

One way to look at it is that the Royals gave Lugo the qualifying offer, and he accepted. Then, there’s just one more year tacked on to that. Honestly, it feels like the Royals are protected for that third year.

The Lugo extension, coupled with the returns of Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen, speaks volumes about the work Brian Sweeney, Zach Bove and Mitch Stetter have done in revamping the Royals pitching philosophy. These three pitchers have all found varying degrees of success since landing in Kansas City. Now, with the Lugo extension, all three had opportunities to use their success in Kansas City as springboards to large contracts in other cities. Yet all three have opted to remain with the Royals.

I get the frustration around this team in 2025, particularly when it comes to the hitters. But with two months remaining in this year, the pitching is sorted for next season. Keeping the core together to continue their work with the pitching coaches has the potential to pay some extreme dividends.

Now, get some bats to supplement that pitching.

As a reliever, Lugo always threw five different pitches. Once he became a starter in San Diego, he added a cutter, a slurve, a sweeper and a split finger to his repertoire. He upped the usage of those four pitches once he landed in Kansas City, with the cutter and slurve in particular both developing into solid offerings. This season, he’s added a 10th pitch: A slow curve that has been especially lethal, with opponents hitting just .174 against that pitch.

The back of the baseball card metrics look stable. Lugo’s 7.9 SO/9 is exactly the same as last year’s. His walk and home run rates have crept up a bit. He owns a 2.6 BB/9 this year, coming off a 2.1 BB/9 in 2024. His home run rate is at 1.4 HR/9 after clocking in at 0.7 HR/9 last year. Yet he’s suppressed the damage with a .245 BABIP, which is well below his career mark of .281. And his strand rate is likewise elevated at 85 percent. Those last two stats are why his ERA is currently 2.95, just a bit lower than last season’s 3.00 ERA.

Meanwhile, the Statcast metrics for Lugo have him taking something of a step back in 2025.

The dropoff can be reflected in his fWAR. After posting a 2.9 fWAR in his lone season in San Diego and then a career-best 4.6 fWAR while finishing second in the AL Cy Young award race, Lugo has posted just 1.2 fWAR through the first two-thirds of the 2025 season.

I think the takeaway from the above is Lugo getting less chase from hitters, which means they’re making more contact. And because most of that increased contact is coming from within the zone, hitters are making better contact.

What’s kind of crazy is that Lugo’s overall ground ball rate is the lowest of his career. After getting a grounder almost 45 percent of the time last year, hitters are hitting worm burners under 40 percent of the time in 2025. The key difference can be found in his sinker. Last season, 58 percent of all balls put in play against his sinker were hit on the ground. This season? Just 44 percent of the batted balls on Lugo’s sinker are grounders.

I suspect that if Lugo can recapture that ground ball magic on his sinker, he will recover some of the losses he’s shown on the Statcast metrics. Still, even with a little more blue on this season’s summary, Lugo has been an incredibly effective starting pitcher. Will he ever be as good as we saw in the 2024 season? That’s unlikely, and probably unreasonable to expect. Can he still be a quality, middle-of-the-order starting pitcher? Absolutely. The contract extension reflects the market rate for a pitcher with his track record of success.

From a personal standpoint, I am delighted by this move because I’ll be able to watch and write about Lugo for the next two seasons. It’s easy to love watching this guy work; he’s a true craftsman, and it’s easy to respect a dude who has that approach. Lugo is, dare I say, Greinke-esque in how he pitches with the array of weapons at his command. Although I’m not sure about Lugo’s thoughts on Chipotle charging for extra guac.

With Lugo off the trade market ahead of this week’s deadline, I am left to wonder about the timing of the extension. It’s purely speculation on my part, but I’m thinking that the Royals weren’t finding a suitable trade partner for Lugo. Or should I say, a suitable return. They probably set trade return expectations high, and those expectations were not being met. They likely weren’t even close to where the Royals could get a deal done in the next few days.

The Royals desperately need offensive help. That’s the general view. The specific view, as I’ve written about as recently as Sunday, is in the outfield. If they could deal Lugo to a team better positioned as a contender in exchange for a major league-ready bat, that’s a move they should’ve strongly considered.

I’m thinking the trade market just wasn’t developing. Whether it’s soft for Lugo in particular or starting pitchers in general, we’ll find out over the next couple of days.

On the heels of Saturday’s disaster of a start, the official word on Kris Bubic came down prior to the series finale on Sunday: A left rotator cuff strain and a trip to the 15-day IL. While it’s good that the Royals know the reason behind the drop in velocity, coupled with the loss of command we all witnessed in his outing against the Guardians, this deals a potentially fatal blow to the Royals slim hopes for postseason baseball. The rotation is down to Lugo, Wacha, Noah Cameron and…Rich Hill (real name, Dick Mountain).

Maybe my initial reaction is a little overblown. There are a number of teams around the league with thin rotations. With Lugo, Wacha and now the emergence of Cameron, the Royals at least have three starters they can count on for competitive starts each time they take the baseball. Still, it would be difficult for any team to replace what Bubic gave the Royals over the first half of the season.

These were the top first-half pitchers ranked by fWAR:

Bubic has been outstanding. If the season ended today, he would be getting down-ballot Cy Young votes. It’s been a true breakout season for the left-hander as he’s been the best starter on this Royals staff.

Now, he’s on the shelf, and the Royals don’t have a ton of options to replace him in the rotation. The lack of depth will be an issue as soon as Wednesday. The rainout on Friday against the Guardians meant Wacha’s start was pushed back a day to Saturday. For now, the Royals rotation will be Hill on Monday against the Braves with Lugo behind him on Tuesday. Wednesday will either be a bullpen game or the Royals will have to find a starter from Triple-A.

That starting pitching depth we discussed so often early in the year? Yeah…it’s all on the IL. Alec Marsh, who made 25 starts for the Royals last year, hasn’t thrown a single inning in 2025. Kyle Wright, coming back from shoulder surgery, is now battling an oblique issue and has been shelved in Triple-A. What counts for pitching depth now is Dallas Keuchel, Thomas Hatch and Chandler Champlain. Hatch and Champlain both started this weekend, so they’re probably out of the running for an emergency Wednesday start. Keuchel’s next scheduled turn would be Tuesday. If the Royals choose to call up a starter from Omaha, they will have to make a move to get that pitcher on the 40-man roster.

Lorenzen will be eligible to come off the IL on Tuesday, but the Royals believe he will need a couple of rehab starts before he’s ready to return to the major league rotation.