The Sunday Ramble

The top tier of the free agent market came unstuck on Saturday night as the Chicago Cubs convinced Alex Bregman to move to the North Side. It seems $175 million over five years with a full no-trade clause is enough to generate some interest.

This signing should have something of a cascading effect. The Cubs have Dansby Swanson (who went ahead of Bregman at first overall in the 2015 draft and is the reason Bregman has worn the number two for his entire career) entrenched at short. Third baseman Matt Shaw can slide over to second base, which would dislodge current incumbent Nico Hoerner. If that’s the play, that could open something of a bidding war on the trade market for Hoerner’s services.

That is something that could be appealing to the Royals. Hoerner has appeared in over 150 games in each of the last three seasons for the Cubs and owns a career .282/.340/.384 while playing some great defense at the keystone. He doesn’t pack a lot of punch, but does make exceptional contact. He’s a great baserunner as well. Hoerner has averaged over 4 fWAR in these three seasons.

Hoerner will earn $12 million in 2026, the final year of a three-year deal he signed with the Cubs back in 2023 that kicked in for the 2024 season. The Royals would need to free up space by moving Jonathan India, but given the quality of upgrade Hoerner would bring to Kansas City, this is something the club should seriously be exploring. If the Cubs are willing to move Hoerner.

I expect the Cubs are fielding calls as you read this. One of those calls should be coming from One Royal Way.

Bo Bichette seems like he would be a popular guy at the moment. The Red Sox could certainly pivot to the former Blue Jay now that they’ve lost out on Bregman.

There were reports that the Cubs were interested at one point in Bichette. Now that’s certainly not going to happen. The Phillies were reportedly meeting with him last week. The Yankees are another potential landing spot. The Dodgers, too, because why not? And while the Blue Jays have been big spenders this winter, they supposedly haven’t shut the door to an idea of a reunion.

If I had to guess, I’d peg the Red Sox as the new front runners in the Bichette sweepstakes. And they probably want to move quickly. So the fever dream I had of Bichette’s market dipping enough for the Royals to take advantage doesn’t seem likely to come to fruition.

While I chronicled the deals the Royals struck on arbitration deadline day (and those they did not with Vinnie Pasquantino and Kris Bubic), the top story of the day was the gap in the figures submitted by Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers.

Skubal, coming off back-to-back AL Cy Young awards, is eligible for arbitration for the third and final time in his career. He filed at $32 million. The Tigers countered at $19 million.

There’s quite a bit to unpack here. For starters, the dollar amount that Skubal is seeking would be a record for a final year eligible player, topping the $31 million deal struck between Juan Soto and the Yankees hadead of the 2024 season. The gap between team and player at $13 million is, unsurprisingly, a record. Speaking of records, the most a pitcher has ever earned through this process was David Price in 2015 who collected $19.75 from…the Detroit Tigers. So the Tigers are thinking that Skubal is worth less in 2026, coming off back-to-back Cy Young awards than Price in 2015.

The question I have is…What the hell are the Tigers thinking?

The Tigers submitted a dollar amount so absurdedly low for a player like Skubal, there is absolutely no way they can win. I understand the conclusions everyone is drawing that the Tigers are sending a signal to their lefty that they are either going to trade him or let him play out the deal and then allow him to hit the free agent market. What about the signal the Tigers are sending to the rest of the league? The one that shows a tremendous under valuation and under appreciation of their marquee player who happens to be one of the best pitchers in the universe. Players around the game have to be looking at that and think that if they’re going to disrespect a two-time Cy Young award winner, how are they going to deal with just your average run-of-the-mill player?

At this point, I cannot imagine—nor would I understand—Skubal deciding to negotate and finding some kind of common ground. Arbitration is an either/or process. If it goes to trial, Skubal will make either the $32 million he filed at or the $19 million the Tigers offered. There is no in between. Why would Skubal strike a deal for say $30 million when he’s pretty clearly going to win his case?

The assignment wasn’t difficult. And the Tigers managed a way to flunk.

Commissioner and known baseball hater, Rob Manfred, made some news this week for all the usual reasons.

From The Athletic:

Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred said he is considering major shakeups to the league’s schedule, including the possibility of a split season or an in-season competition similar to the NBA Cup.

“We’ve talked about split seasons. We’ve talked about in-season tournaments,” Manfred said Thursday in a radio interview with WFAN’s Craig Carton and Chris McMonigle. “We do understand that 162 (games) is a long pull. I think the difficulty to accomplish those sort of in-season events, you almost inevitably start talking about fewer regular-season games.

“It is a much more complicated thing in our sport than it is in other sports. Because of all of our season-long records, you’re playing around with something that people care a lot about.”

Man, where do we even begin? An in-season tournament? That’s dumb. A split season? Even dumber.

But dumb is just kind of how this commissioner rolls.

I just can’t even get my head around how an in-season tournament would potentially work. Sure, the NBA Cup is a thing, but that seems to work for that particular sport and wouldn’t carry over to baseball. Besides, it seems a reach that any team would care that much about it. Plus, baseball already has a tournament with the World Baseball Classic this spring. The last time that tournament was played, it was absolutely epic. I expect the same this time around. I understand the desire to saturate the market because everyone can pocket a little more cash, but sometimes less seems to be more.

As for the split season, that’s something that’s a little more feasible...and frightening. Cutting the regular season into two halves would allow baseball to once again expand the postseason pool. Imagine a realignment scheme with two leagues and four divisions. Each division winner (or second best in case of repeat winners), would advance and then they would find a way to squeeze a couple of wild cards in the mix. (In baseball’s lone split season—1981—the Cincinnati Reds won more games total than any other team, but did not qualify for the postseason because they finished second in both halves.) There’s an easy path to…gulp…a 20 team postseason in a split season.

Twenty teams in October? That, my friends, could break me.

Now that Bregman has a deal in place, I figure the market for Cody Bellinger will pick up.

I’ve been moderately intrigued by the Bellinger free agent saga because I’ve thought from the beginning he was looking for far too much in both years and average annual value. The argument I always seem to mention is that there are 10 or so top tier free agents but how many teams are truly looking to add that kind of payroll hit? Less than 10. And as teams like the Cubs pick off those free agents, one by one, that shrinks the pool for the remaining guys.

What’s surprising is that one of those teams that’s been slow to commit money happens to be the Yankees. Buster Olney reported on Saturday that Bellinger and his most recent employer are “at an impasse” in talks. According to reports, New York offered five years at around an AAV of $30 million. That would be Kyle Schwarber back to Philadelphia money. Apparently, Bellinger is seeking seven years. He’s younger than both Bregman and Schwarber so maybe the ask isn’t that far out of line.

The Red Sox have been mentioned almost daily as a potential trade partner for the Royals. The Sox have a plethora of outfielders and the Royals could use a little help there. And the Royals have some depth in the rotation and the Red Sox need some arms. So there’s a natural match.

Except Boston’s President of Baseball Operations, Craig Breslow isn’t looking to move a bat. From Saturday’s Fenway Fest:

“It was never likely in my mind,” Breslow told reporters, including Chris Cotillo of MassLive. “We’ve got really talented outfielders. When teams call, that’s what other executives point to. They’re young, they’re controllable, they’re dynamic, they’re talented, and can impact games in multiple ways. It’s really nice to be able to say they’re also members of the Boston Red Sox.”

I wonder if the trade market has will pick up now that there seems to be movement at the top of the free agent class.

Michael Lorenzen moved on to Colorado, signing a one-year, $8 million deal with the Rockies. There is a club option attached for 2027.

I liked Lorenzen in the Royals rotation, but with the additions JJ Picollo made at the trade deadline last summer, the right-hander’s presence was no longer required.

In 2025 for the Royals, Lorenzen made 26 starts, throwing 141.2 innings with a 4.64 ERA and 4.67 xERA. That’s kind of amazing those two numbers were so close, given the volume of innings. Lorenzen also struck out 21 percent of batters he faced, his highest rate since 2020 when he whiffed 24 percent.

Where Lorenzen really showed improvement last season was with his walk rate. He’s generally been a bit higher than the league average when it comes to issuing free passes, but in 2025 he sliced his walk rate to a career-best 6 percent.

He closed his Royals career on a high note, striking out a career-high nine batters in 5.2 innings while picking up the win against the Angels in the season’s final week.

The Angels weren’t happy with the strike zone, but Lorenzen was dotting the edges. This was the location of the final strikes on those strikeouts.

The cluster of sinkers and the slider were all called strikes. The fastballs up and changeups down were whiffs. Man, looking at stuff like this makes me realize how much I miss watching games. Winter sucks.

Good for Lorenzen to get a fine deal. On the other hand, you have to feel for him because this move to altitude is going to leave a mark. Early in his career, he was primairly a ground ball pitcher. The last few seasons though, he’s been allowing more balls hit in the air. If he’s giving up line drives, those are going to find the gaps in the massive Coors Field outfield. If the launch angle is a bit more elevated…whoooo boy. Last summer, Lorenzen posted a 1.6 HR/9 and a 14 percent HR/FB rate.

Good luck to Lorenzen, but this could get ugly.